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A mathematical model for Xylella fastidiosa epidemics in the Mediterranean regions. Promoting good agronomic practices for their effective control.
Ecological Modelling ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109204
Matteo Brunetti , Vincenzo Capasso , Matteo Montagna , Ezio Venturino

Abstract Mathematical models represent essential tools allowing a quantitative analysis of an epidemic system with the consequent identification of possible strategies to control a disease outbreak or even to prevent it. However, to be used in decision-making, they must be carefully parametrized and validated with epidemiological data as well as biological information on the relevant players. Here, benefitting of the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome (OQDS) outbreak, which has occurred in Southern Italy since 2013, an epidemiological model describing this epidemic is presented. Beside the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, the OQDS main players considered in the model are its insect vectors, Philaenus spumarius, and the host plants (olive trees and weeds) of the insects and of the bacterium. The model is based on a system of ordinary differential equations, the analysis of which have provided interesting results about possible equilibria of the epidemic system and guidelines for its numerical simulations. These, under a variety of parameter scenarios, have led to the model sensitivity analysis, hence to understanding the parameters relative importance in the transmission of the disease. Although the model presented here is mathematically rather simplified, its analysis has highlighted threshold parameters that could be the target of control strategies within the integrated pest management framework, not requiring the removal of the productive resource represented by the olive trees. Indeed numerical simulations support the outcomes of the mathematical analysis according to which a removal of a suitable amount of weeds biomass (reservoir of Xylella fastidiosa) from olive orchards and surrounding areas resulted the most efficient strategy to control the spread of the OQDS. In addition, as expected, the adoption of more resistant olive tree cultivars has been shown to be a good strategy, though less cost-effective, in controlling the pathogen.

中文翻译:

地中海地区苛养木霉流行的数学模型。促进良好的农艺实践以有效控制它们。

摘要 数学模型代表了基本工具,允许对流行系统进行定量分析,从而确定控制疾病爆发甚至预防疾病爆发的可能策略。但是,要用于决策,它们必须经过仔细参数化并使用流行病学数据以及相关参与者的生物学信息进行验证。在这里,受益于自 2013 年以来在意大利南部发生的橄榄快速衰退综合症 (OQDS) 爆发,介绍了描述这种流行病的流行病学模型。除了细菌 Xylella fastidiosa 之外,模型中考虑的 OQDS 主要参与者是其昆虫载体,Philaenus spumarius,以及昆虫和细菌的寄主植物(橄榄树和杂草)。该模型基于常微分方程组,对它们的分析提供了有关流行病系统可能的平衡及其数值模拟指南的有趣结果。这些,在各种参数场景下,导致了模型敏感性分析,从而了解参数在疾病传播中的相对重要性。虽然这里介绍的模型在数学上相当简化,但其分析突出了阈值参数,这些参数可能是综合虫害管理框架内控制策略的目标,不需要移除以橄榄树为代表的生产资源。事实上,数值模拟支持数学分析的结果,根据该结果,从橄榄园和周边地区去除适量的杂草生物量(木质小球藻的水库)是控制 OQDS 传播的最有效策略。此外,正如预期的那样,采用更具抗性的橄榄树栽培品种已被证明是一种很好的策略,尽管成本效益较低,但在控制病原体方面。
更新日期:2020-09-01
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