Abstract Modern processes of gully erosion and thermoerosion are clearly pronounced in the permafrost zone in the north of Western Siberia, on the Yamal Peninsula, including in the territories of new development. Under these conditions, knowledge of the gully potential is necessary for the rational siting of buildings and infrastructure in the areas of new development in order to avoid their damage and destruction by newly formed gullies. The gully erosion potential was calculated for one of the valley catchments in the area of the Bovanenkovo gas condensate field. The dynamic model of gully erosion and thermoerosion (GULTEM) was used, which describes the main gullying processes in the permafrost zone and permits a reasonable assessment of the gully erosion potential. The calculations were done in terms of the ArcticDEM digital elevation model, climate data were obtained from the nearest node of the ERA-Interim reanalysis grid, and water discharges were calculated using the hydrological model calibrated with observational data on this catchment. The gully erosion potential was estimated for different values of the critical rate of erosion initiation for the upper soil layer with vegetation. The calculated gully erosion potential was compared with the erosion relief on the catchment. It has been established that the gully potential calculated for severely disturbed vegetation cover corresponds to the erosion network in the catchment area formed over more than 30 years of its development. It is concluded that the erosion potential of this catchment is mainly developed, with low probability of a further lengthening of the gully network. Therefore, only rill erosion can damage the infrastructure of the Bovanenkovo gas condensate field, mainly located on a flat watershed surface, the consequences of which are easily eliminated.

中文翻译：

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评估一个领土的沟壑潜力（以亚马尔中部为例）

摘要 在西西伯利亚北部、亚马尔半岛的永久冻土带，包括新开发区，沟壑侵蚀和热侵蚀的现代过程非常明显。在这些条件下，为了避免新形成的沟渠对建筑物和基础设施的破坏和破坏，需要了解沟渠潜力，以便在新开发区域合理选址建筑物和基础设施。计算了 Bovanenkovo 凝析气田区域内的一个山谷集水区的沟渠侵蚀潜力。使用冲沟侵蚀和热侵蚀动力学模型 (GULTEM)，该模型描述了多年冻土区的主要冲沟过程，并允许对冲沟侵蚀潜力进行合理评估。计算是根据 ArcticDEM 数字高程模型进行的，从 ERA-Interim 再分析网格的最近节点获取气候数据，并使用根据该流域的观测数据校准的水文模型计算排水量。对于具有植被的上层土壤的侵蚀起始临界速率的不同值，估计了沟渠侵蚀潜力。计算出的沟渠侵蚀潜力与流域的侵蚀缓解进行了比较。已经确定，为严重干扰植被覆盖计算的沟渠潜力对应于集水区 30 多年发展形成的侵蚀网络。结论是该流域的侵蚀潜力主要发育，沟网进一步拉长的可能性较小。所以，