Abstract

For two hydrological models, the ECOMAG and SWAP, the hypothesis is checked that a model which has successfully passed the test based on observational data is more efficient for assessing future hydrological consequences of climate change than the models which did not pass the test. The efficiency is evaluated using two criteria: the robustness of a model and the uncertainty of simulation results. Three versions of each model constructed for the basins of the Lena and Mackenzie rivers are examined: the model whose parameters are set a priori (without calibration), the model which was calibrated against runoff hydrographs at the outlet, and the model which was calibrated against runoff hydrographs at several gaging stations of the river network. The estimates of possible changes in the river runoff by the end of the 21st century are obtained using data of global climate models. It is shown that the hydrological model which successfully passed the proposed testing procedure is more effective for assessing climate change impact on the river runoff.

中文翻译：

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测试水文模型以评估气候变化对河流径流的影响

摘要

对于ECOMAG和SWAP这两个水文模型，检查了以下假设：已成功通过基于观测数据的检验的模型比未通过检验的模型更有效地评估气候变化的未来水文后果。使用两个标准评估效率：模型的鲁棒性和仿真结果的不确定性。考察了为Lena和Mackenzie河流域建造的每种模型的三个版本：参数设置为先验模型（未经校准），针对出口径流水位线进行校准的模型以及针对模型进行校准的模型河网几个测站的径流水文图。使用全球气候模型的数据，可以估算到21世纪末河流径流的可能变化。结果表明，成功通过建议的测试程序的水文模型对于评估气候变化对河流径流的影响更为有效。