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Simulating the interactions between the water and the socio-economic system in a stressed endorheic basin
Hydrological Sciences Journal ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-27
Sajad Enteshari, Hamid R. Safavi, Pieter van der Zaag

The endorheic basin of Zayandehrud in Iran suffers from environmental problems, social tensions, and economic instability. Lack of understanding how the water system and the socio-economic system interact may explain these challenges. A system dynamics model, being a holistic simulation tool, was developed for the Zayandehrud basin and used to evaluate several policy scenarios. The indices of employment, gross regional product, the volume of groundwater and surface water stored, flow into the basin’s end lake, and the water flow in the river were used to evaluate the scenarios. The findings demonstrate that focusing on supply-based activities or water demand management cannot solely improve the condition of the Zayandehrud basin. It is required to reconsider the development policies of the region in a broader context. Reducing the irrigated area by 15% and developing new industries up to a certain limit may make the combined water and socio-economic system sustainable.



中文翻译:

模拟受压背胶盆地中水与社会经济系统之间的相互作用

伊朗Zayandehrud的背胶盆地遭受环境问题,社会紧张局势和经济不稳定的困扰。缺乏对水系统与社会经济系统之间相互作用的理解可能解释了这些挑战。为Zayandehrud盆地开发了系统动力学模型,它是一种整体模拟工具,用于评估多种政策方案。就业指数,地区生产总值,地下水和地表水的存储量,流入流域末湖的流量以及河流中的水流量均用于评估情景。研究结果表明,仅关注基于供应的活动或水需求管理不能仅仅改善Zayandehrud流域的状况。有必要在更广泛的范围内重新考虑该地区的发展政策。

更新日期:2020-07-27
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