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Limits of Predictability of a Global Self-Similar Routing Model in a Local Self-Similar Environment
Atmosphere ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-27 , DOI: 10.3390/atmos11080791
Nicolas Velasquez , Ricardo Mantilla

Regional Distributed Hydrological models are being adopted around the world for prediction of streamflow fluctuations and floods. However, the details of the hydraulic geometry of the channels in the river network (cross sectional geometry, slope, drag coefficients, etc.) are not always known, which imposes the need for simplifications based on scaling laws and their prescription. We use a distributed hydrological model forced with radar-derived rainfall fields to test the effect of spatial variations in the scaling parameters of Hydraulic Geometric (HG) relationships used to simplify routing equations. For our experimental setup, we create a virtual watershed that obeys local self-similarity laws for HG and attempt to predict the resulting hydrographs using a global self-similar HG parameterization. We find that the errors in the peak flow value and timing are consistent with the errors that are observed when trying to replicate actual observation of streamflow. Our results provide evidence that local self-similarity can be a more appropriate simplification of HG scaling laws than global self-similarity.

中文翻译:

局部自相似环境中全局自相似路由模型的可预测性限制

全球范围内正在采用区域分布式水文模型来预测水流波动和洪水。但是,河网中河道的水力几何形状(横截面几何形状,坡度,阻力系数等)的细节并不总是已知的,这要求根据比例定律及其规定进行简化。我们使用由雷达派生的降雨场强迫的分布式水文模型来测试水力几何(HG)关系的缩放参数中的空间变化对简化路由方程的影响。对于我们的实验设置,我们创建了一个虚拟的分水岭,该分水岭遵循HG的局部自相似定律,并尝试使用全局自相似HG参数化来预测生成的水位图。我们发现峰值流量值和时间上的误差与尝试复制实际流量观测值时观察到的误差一致。我们的结果提供了证据,表明局部自相似性比全局自相似性更适合简化HG比例定律。
更新日期:2020-07-27
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