Soil moisture plays an essential role in food production and land‐atmosphere feedback. However, the relative contribution of precipitation and air temperature on dry season (October–December) soil moisture has not been systematically examined in India. Using observations and simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, a significant (4%, p value = 0.04) decline in soil moisture (dry season drying hereafter) was found in a large part of India during the 1951–2018. The decline in the summer monsoon precipitation in India during 1951–2018 is mainly due to a decrease in rainfall during the late monsoon season (August–September). A substantial decline (−18.6%, p value = 0.009) in the late monsoon and (−26%, p value = 0.19) dry season precipitation was observed. A significant warming (0.75°C, p value = 0.002) has occurred during the dry season between 1951 and 2018. The relative contribution of decline in precipitation in the late monsoon (30%) and dry season (34%) is considerably higher than the dry season warming (15%). The previously unexplored role of climate warming on the dry season drying was analyzed using Maximum Covariance Analysis between precipitation and sea surface temperature, which suggests both large‐scale and localized influences. Climate warming over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans is associated with declining precipitation during the late monsoon and dry seasons over central India. Also, climate warming over land exacerbates the dry season drying by depleting soil moisture. The dry season drying over a large part of India contributed by climate warming has substantial implications for irrigation water management and groundwater abstraction.

中文翻译：

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1951–2018年印度降水和气温对旱季干燥的相对贡献

土壤水分在粮食生产和土地大气反馈中起着至关重要的作用。但是，印度尚未系统地研究降水和气温对干旱季节（10月至12月）土壤水分的相对贡献。根据变量入渗能力模型的观察和模拟，在1951年至2018年期间，印度大部分地区土壤水分（此后为干燥季节干燥）显着下降（4％，p值= 0.04）。1951年至2018年期间印度夏季季风降水量下降，主要是由于季风后期（8月至9月）降雨减少。季风后期显着下降（−18.6％，p值= 0.009），下降幅度为（−26％，p值＝ 0.19）观察到干燥季节的降水。显着变暖（0.75°C，p值= 0.002）发生在1951年至2018年的干旱季节。季风后期（30％）和干旱季节（34％）降水下降的相对贡献大大高于干旱季节的增温（15％）。使用降水和海面温度之间的最大协方差分析来分析气候变暖在干燥季节干燥中的先前未曾探索的作用，这表明了大规模和局部的影响。印度洋和大西洋的气候变暖与季风后期和印度中部干旱季节的降水减少有关。此外，陆地上的气候变暖通过消耗土壤水分加剧了干旱季节的干燥。