Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging. It requires fine-resolution coupled models that properly represent air-sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks, with aid from coherent coupled initialization. This study uses three sets of high-resolution regional coupled models (RCMs) covering the Asia-Pacific (AP) region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific. The AP-RCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Regional Ocean Model System (WRF-ROMS): 27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS, and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS. In this study, a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis. Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved, the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis, which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics, thus resolving better air-sea and air-land interactions.

中文翻译：

---

用动态缩小耦合数据同化初始化在高分辨率耦合模型中检验热带气旋起源的可预测性

预测热带气旋 (TC) 的成因具有重要的社会意义，但在科学上具有挑战性。它需要精细分辨率耦合模型，在相干耦合初始化的帮助下，正确表示大气对局部暖海表面温度和反馈的响应中的海气相互作用。本研究使用三套覆盖亚太（AP）地区的高分辨率区域耦合模型（RCMs），通过局部观测和动态缩小的耦合数据同化进行初始化，以评估西太平洋台风成因的可预测性。AP-RCM 由气象研究和预报-区域海洋模型系统 (WRF-ROMS) 的三套高分辨率配置组成：27 公里 WRF 和 9 公里 ROMS 和 9 公里 WRF 和 3 公里 ROMS . 在这项研究中，具有 9 公里 ROMS 耦合模型系统的 9 公里 WRF 也用于 TC 成因可预测性的案例测试。由于有利于TC形成的局地海面温度和风切变条件得到更好的解析，增强分辨率耦合模型倾向于提高TC成因的可预测性，这可以通过改进行星边界层物理进一步提高，从而更好地解决空气-海陆空相互作用。