Seasonal climate forecasts (forecasts) aim to reduce climate‐related productivity risk by helping farmers make decisions that minimise losses in poor years and maximise profits in good years. Most Australian forecast valuations have focused on fertiliser decisions to wheat operations, and few assessments have evaluated the benefit of incremental improvements of forecast skill. These gaps have limited our understanding of forecast value to the broader agriculture sector and the benefit of investments to improve forecast skill. To address these gaps, we consistently assessed forecast value for seven Australian case studies (southern grains, northern grains, southern beef, northern beef, lamb, cotton, and sugar). We implemented a three‐stage methodology which consisted of engagement with industry practitioners; modelling production under different climatic and environmental conditions; and economic modelling to evaluate forecast value for eleven levels of forecast skill. Our results show that forecast value was often low and highly variable. Value was found to vary based on forecast attributes (forecast skill, resolution and state), industry application and prevailing conditions (environmental and market). This is the first Australian valuation study where the same methodological approach was applied across multiple industries, incremental improvements in skill were valued, and prevailing conditions were explicitly evaluated for impact on value.

中文翻译：

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洞察季节性气候预报对农业的价值

季节性气候预报（预报）旨在通过帮助农民做出使贫困年份的损失最小化和丰收年度的利润最大化的决策来降低与气候相关的生产力风险。澳大利亚大多数的预测估值都集中在决定小麦经营的化肥决策上，很少有评估评估了预测技能不断提高的好处。这些差距限制了我们对更广泛的农业部门的预测价值的理解，也限制了提高预测技能的投资收益。为了解决这些差距，我们一贯评估了七个澳大利亚案例研究（南方谷物，北部谷物，南部牛肉，北部牛肉，羊肉，棉花和糖）的预测价值。我们实施了一个由三个阶段组成的方法，即与行业从业者互动。模拟不同气候和环境条件下的生产；和经济模型来评估11个级别的预测技能的预测值。我们的结果表明，预测值通常较低且变化很大。发现价值根据预测属性（预测技能，解决方案和状态），行业应用和主要条件（环境和市场）而有所不同。这是澳大利亚的第一项估值研究，在多个行业中都采用了相同的方法论方法，评估了技能的逐步提高，并明确评估了对价值产生影响的主要条件。发现价值根据预测属性（预测技能，解决方案和状态），行业应用和主要条件（环境和市场）而有所不同。这是澳大利亚的第一项估值研究，在多个行业中采用了相同的方法论方法，评估了技能的逐步提高，并明确评估了对价值产生影响的主要条件。发现价值根据预测属性（预测技能，解决方案和状态），行业应用和主要条件（环境和市场）而有所不同。这是澳大利亚的第一项估值研究，在多个行业中都采用了相同的方法论方法，评估了技能的逐步提高，并明确评估了对价值产生影响的主要条件。