Abstract Ground surface movement shows different features during mining and post-mining period. If the mine goaf is dry, surface subsidence is observed in both periods. If the mine goaf is flooded by groundwater, however, ground surface uplift can be observed although much smaller in amplitude compared to the preceding subsidence. A numerical modeling strategy is proposed to predict uplift during the flooding process of an excavated coal mining area under complex geological conditions. The modeling approach considers three phases: virgin state before mining, stage immediately after mine closure, flooding phase. The model considers elasto-plastic material behavior including faults represented by interfaces. In-situ measurements are used for calibration of the model. The Oelsnitz abandoned coal mine is used for model validation and prediction. The measured subsidences up to 17 m were reproduced as well as the uplift within the last 10 years with values between 0.5–2.0 mm/year. Spatial distribution of uplift areas is well reproduced. Predictions up to the year 2051 show an increase in uplift velocity between 0.5–3.0 mm/year and additional total uplift of up to 300 mm.

中文翻译：

---

煤矿开采及后续地下水驱引起地表运动的数值分析与预测

摘要 地表运动在开采和开采后期表现出不同的特征。如果采空区干燥，则在两个时期都观察到地表下沉。但是，如果采空区被地下水淹没，则可以观察到地表隆起，尽管与之前的沉降相比幅度要小得多。提出了一种数值模拟策略，用于预测复杂地质条件下开挖煤矿区洪水过程中的隆起。建模方法考虑三个阶段：开采前的原始状态、矿山关闭后的阶段、洪水阶段。该模型考虑了弹塑性材料行为，包括由界面表示的故障。现场测量用于校准模型。Oelsnitz 废弃煤矿用于模型验证和预测。再现了测量的高达 17 m 的沉降以及过去 10 年内的隆起，数值在 0.5-2.0 mm/年之间。隆起区的空间分布得到了很好的再现。到 2051 年的预测显示，抬升速度增加 0.5-3.0 毫米/年，总抬升幅度高达 300 毫米。