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Decadal behaviors of tropical storm tracks in the North West Pacific Ocean
Atmospheric Research ( IF 5.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105143
Ravi Shankar Pandey , Yuei-An Liou

Abstract Quantitative analysis on the shape of 959 tropical storm (TS) tracks in the North West Pacific (NWP) basin was carried out over the period from 1977 to 2016 by using International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) based on an established track sinuosity metric. Track sinuosity is a measure of deviation of a storm track from its straight–line path between the cyclogenesis and cyclolysis locations. More sinuosity in the storms' tracks makes it rather challenging for the atmospheric models to accurately assess the storms' respective locations on the map and potentially causes higher damages due to lack of precise information about their movement. Statistical analysis was carried out on spatial and temporal trends (monthly to decadal) of the TS track shape and the obtained results were mapped based on sinuosity categories within a GIS environment. The sinuosity distribution results are normalized using a cube–root transformation function to reduce skewness and obtain sinuosity index (SI). Distinct enhancement of TS sinuosity was noticed from the months July to October (JASO). It is also detected that early months of TS season like June–August have dominance of more predictable straighter storm tracks over sinuous kind of tracks, and vice-versa in the case of late months of season like September–October. It is also evident that there is a one- to three-year cyclic pattern of changing sinuosity over the NWP basin. The 1987–1996 decade had the maximum dominance of sinuous tracks in comparison to the other three decades. Significant longitudinal eastward shift (from 1100 to 1400 E to 1300–1600 E) in majority of cyclogenesis locations is observed as sinuosity in storm track increases from straight to sinuous patterns. Similar shift for latitudinal track was not found. Finally, we investigate the sinuosity based on the warm/cold phase of the ENSO. Warm phase of ENSO is found to be associated with a greater number of TS with higher SI values in the NWP basin. These TS during warm phase mostly originate in the eastern part of the basin where a vast open area of warm sea surface temperature encourages their formation and intensification. Lastly, the study found a moderate positive relationship between SI and TS' longevity and distance coverage, which are crucial information for disaster risk assessment, mitigation and preparedness.

中文翻译:

西北太平洋热带风暴路径的年代际行为

摘要 利用美国国家海洋局提供的国际气候管理最佳轨迹档案(IBTrACS)对西北太平洋(NWP)盆地1977年至2016年期间959次热带风暴(TS)轨迹形状进行了定量分析。大气管理局 (NOAA) 基于已建立的轨道曲率度量。轨迹曲率是风暴轨迹与其在气旋发生和气旋位置之间的直线路径的偏差的量度。风暴轨迹的曲折性使得大气模型很难准确评估风暴在地图上的各自位置,并且由于缺乏有关其运动的精确信息,可能会造成更高的破坏。对 TS 轨迹形状的空间和时间趋势(每月到十年)进行了统计分析,并根据 GIS 环境中的曲率类别绘制了所获得的结果。使用立方根变换函数对曲率分布结果进行归一化,以减少偏度并获得曲率指数 (SI)。从 7 月到 10 月 (JASO),注意到 TS 弯曲度明显增强。还检测到 TS 季节的前几个月(如 6 月至 8 月)在蜿蜒类型的轨道上具有更可预测的直线风暴轨道的优势,反之亦然,在 9 月至 10 月等季节的后期月份。同样明显的是,在 NWP 流域上存在一到三年的曲率变化周期模式。与其他三个十年相比,1987 年至 1996 年十年间曲折轨道占主导地位。在大多数气旋发生位置观察到显着的纵向东移(从 1100 到 1400 E 到 1300-1600 E),因为风暴路径中的曲折度从直线到曲折模式增加。没有发现类似的纬度轨道偏移。最后,我们研究了基于 ENSO 的暖/冷相的曲率。发现 ENSO 的暖相与 NWP 盆地中具有更高 SI 值的更多 TS 相关。暖期的这些TS主要起源于盆地东部,那里广阔的温暖海面温度开放区域促进了它们的形成和强化。最后,该研究发现 SI 和 TS 的寿命和距离覆盖之间存在适度的正相关关系,
更新日期:2020-12-01
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