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Urban flooding in Britain: an approach to comparing ancient and contemporary flood exposure
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04181-8
T. E. O’Shea , J. Lewin

Using modified UK Environment Agency Flood Estimation Handbook techniques, inundation extent and likely flood hydrographs for 0.1% probability annual return periods are compared for twelve Roman town sites in the UK, both at the present day and for simulated Roman catchment conditions. Eight of the study sites appear to have suffered minimal urban flood liability as occupied in the Roman period. The exceptions were Canterbury, York, Leicester, and Chichester. It is reasonable to expect flood characteristics to have changed subsequently in response to transformations in catchment land use, urban expansion, wetland reclamation, and floodway engineering. However, modelling results suggest limited differences in flood flows attributable to such factors. Greater present-day urban damage liability essentially results from floodplain urban extension. There are also contrasts between sites: those Roman towns lying on floodplains themselves, rather than on slightly elevated terraces (Canterbury, Chichester), are dominated by groundwater regimes with attenuated flood peaks. Taken together, these results suggest some Roman awareness of the actualities of urban flood liability at the time. Site sensitivity has not been carried forward as urban expansion has flourished, especially from the nineteenth century with suburban and industrial expansion. The straightforward mapping approach here suggested should in future take account of multiple century-scale hydroclimatic changes, morphological river channel and floodplain transformations over similar time periods, and on-going improvements to inundation modelling.



中文翻译:

英国的城市洪灾:比较古代和当代洪水的一种方法

使用修改后的英国环境局《洪水估算手册》技术,比较了英国的十二个罗马城镇站点(现今以及模拟的罗马集水情况)的淹没程度和可能的洪水水位图(年回报率为0.1%)。与罗马时期相比,其中八个研究地点遭受的城市洪灾负担最小。例外是坎特伯雷,约克,莱斯特和奇切斯特。可以合理预期洪水特征随后会随着集水区土地利用,城市扩张,湿地开垦和洪水道工程的变化而改变。但是,建模结果表明,归因于这些因素的洪水流量差异有限。当前更大的城市破坏责任主要来自洪泛区城市扩展。站点之间也存在着差异:那些位于洪泛区本身而不是略微升高的梯田(坎特伯雷,奇切斯特)的罗马城镇被洪水高峰衰减的地下水体系所主导。综上所述,这些结果表明罗马人当时对城市洪水责任的现状有所了解。随着城市扩张的蓬勃发展,尤其是从19世纪开始,随着郊区和工业的扩张,对场地的敏感性一直没有得到发展。在此建议的直接映射方法在将来应考虑多个世纪尺度的水文气候变化,相似时期的河道形态和洪泛区转换,以及对淹没模型的持续改进。而不是在略高的阶地(坎特伯雷,奇切斯特)上,主要是地下水系统的洪水高峰减弱。综上所述,这些结果表明罗马人当时对城市洪水责任的现状有一定的认识。随着城市扩张的蓬勃发展,尤其是从19世纪开始,随着郊区和工业的扩张,对场地的敏感性一直没有得到发展。在此建议的直接映射方法在将来应考虑多个世纪尺度的水文气候变化,相似时期的河道形态和洪泛区转换,以及对淹没模型的持续改进。而不是在略高的阶地(坎特伯雷,奇切斯特)上,主要是地下水系统的洪水高峰减弱。综上所述,这些结果表明罗马人当时对城市洪水责任的现状有一定的认识。随着城市扩张的蓬勃发展,尤其是从19世纪开始,随着郊区和工业的扩张,对场地的敏感性一直没有得到发展。在此建议的直接映射方法在将来应考虑多个世纪尺度的水文气候变化,相似时期的河道形态和洪泛区转换,以及对淹没模型的持续改进。这些结果表明,罗马人当时对城市洪水责任的现状有所了解。随着城市扩张的蓬勃发展,尤其是从19世纪开始,随着郊区和工业的扩张,对场地的敏感性一直没有得到发展。在此建议的直接映射方法在将来应考虑多个世纪尺度的水文气候变化,相似时期的河道形态和洪泛区转换,以及对淹没模型的持续改进。这些结果表明,罗马人当时对城市洪水责任的现状有所了解。随着城市扩张的蓬勃发展,尤其是从19世纪开始,随着郊区和工业的扩张,对场地的敏感性一直没有得到发展。在此建议的直接映射方法在将来应考虑多个世纪尺度的水文气候变化,相似时期的河道形态和洪泛区转换,以及对淹没模型的持续改进。

更新日期:2020-07-25
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