Economic analysis of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) typically focuses on identifying the quantity of water to add cost-effectively to natural rates of recharge. However, to the extent that MAR is successful, higher groundwater levels or at least slower depletion are likely to influence crop choice and groundwater pumping dynamics. Using a landscape-level model, we maximize farm net returns taking into account MAR and on-farm surface reservoir storage, crop choice, and the impacts of drought on groundwater use in Eastern Arkansas, USA, over 120 years. We find that drought frequency (risk) has a stronger influence on groundwater pumping and MAR use compared with drought severity. There is evidence of a substantial slippage, the percentage of the increase in groundwater use with versus without MAR divided by the MAR use, under a range of MAR cost and drought scenarios. Total slippage ranges from about 32 to 75% of total MAR water, indicating that only 68–25% of the MAR water raises groundwater levels. Even if the costs of MAR are relatively high and slippage is present, the total net returns to farms in this region are higher, and the variability in those returns are less with MAR.

中文翻译：

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在干旱风险增加的情况下通过管理含水层补给实现节水

管理含水层补给 (MAR) 的经济分析通常侧重于确定以具有成本效益的方式增加自然补给率的水量。然而，就 MAR 的成功而言，较高的地下水位或至少较慢的枯竭可能会影响作物选择和地下水抽取动态。使用景观级模型，我们将 120 多年来 MAR 和农场地表水库储存、作物选择以及干旱对美国阿肯色州东部地下水使用的影响考虑在内，使农场净收益最大化。我们发现，与干旱严重程度相比，干旱频率（风险）对地下水抽取和 MAR 使用的影响更大。有证据表明存在显着下滑，即使用 MAR 与不使用 MAR 的地下水使用增加的百分比除以 MAR 使用量，在一系列 MAR 成本和干旱情景下。总滑移量约为 MAR 总水量的 32% 至 75%，表明只有 68% 至 25% 的 MAR 水会提高地下水位。即使 MAR 的成本相对较高且存在滑点，该地区农场的总净收益较高，并且这些收益的可变性与 MAR 相比较小。