ABSTRACT

This work introduces a methodology to evaluate, rank, and select suppliers for an organisation managing a large and complex construction project. The company’s procedure to complete a supplier evaluation is conflated with other supplier features such as product type and complexity, delivery characteristics and requirements, and geographic location of the project. The introduced model segregates the effects of each feature and then aids supplier selection on various criteria without the confounding effects. Model parameters are determined using Bayesian estimators allowing for information integration from prior periods. The estimation approach provides rich model parameter data, allowing for use in additional analysis. This work advances the research in supplier selection by illustrating a practical forecasting and predictive technique for supplier selection. One result is that the separability of factors in a multiple criteria decision environment can prove valuable for managers to help decipher and isolate factors in a complex decision environment. The technique is feasible for smaller problem sets and provides a robust solution. Past performance and future performance potential are both considered. Analysis and future research directions allow for further development.

摘要

这项工作介绍了一种为管理大型复杂建筑项目的组织评估、排名和选择供应商的方法。公司完成供应商评估的程序与其他供应商特征（例如产品类型和复杂性、交付特征和要求以及项目的地理位置）混为一谈。引入的模型分离了每个特征的影响，然后在没有混杂影响的情况下帮助根据各种标准选择供应商。模型参数是使用贝叶斯估计器确定的，允许对先前时期的信息进行整合。估计方法提供了丰富的模型参数数据，允许用于额外的分析。这项工作通过说明供应商选择的实用预测和预测技术，推进了供应商选择的研究。一个结果是，多标准决策环境中的因素的可分离性对于管理者帮助破译和隔离复杂决策环境中的因素可以证明是有价值的。该技术对于较小的问题集是可行的，并提供了稳健的解决方案。过去的表现和未来的表现潜力都被考虑在内。分析和未来的研究方向允许进一步发展。过去的表现和未来的表现潜力都被考虑在内。分析和未来的研究方向允许进一步发展。过去的表现和未来的表现潜力都被考虑在内。分析和未来的研究方向允许进一步发展。