This article studies the application of fuzzy logic to the risk analysis of a new software product development and marketing in specific case of a small size IT company. Identification and analysis of external and internal risk factors show that this type of business activity could be evaluated as high-risk enterprise. So, the purpose of the paper is to develop robust method to evaluate probability of occurrence of major risk events and their impact on the company financial health. The fuzzy logic is used to estimate degrees of threat of each relevant risk factor due to lack of reliable statistical data. The novelty of proposed approach is the inclusion into the model the risk event time.

本文研究在小型IT公司特定情况下，模糊逻辑在新软件产品开发和市场营销风险分析中的应用。对外部和内部风险因素的识别和分析表明，这种类型的业务活动可以被评估为高风险企业。因此，本文的目的是开发一种鲁棒的方法来评估重大风险事件发生的可能性及其对公司财务健康的影响。由于缺乏可靠的统计数据，模糊逻辑用于估计每个相关风险因素的威胁程度。所提出方法的新颖之处在于将风险事件时间纳入模型。