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Observed extreme precipitation trends and scaling in Central Europe
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 8 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100266
Joel Zeder , Erich M. Fischer

In this publication we aim to relate observed changes in Central European extreme precipitation to the respective large-scale thermodynamic state of the atmosphere. Maxima of long-term (1901–2013) daily precipitation records from a densely sampled Central European station network, spanning Austria, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands, are scaled with Northern Hemispheric and regional temperature anomalies. Scaling coefficients are estimated at station level and aggregated to infer a robust regional extreme precipitation – temperature relationship. Across Central Europe, an overall intensification and a positive scaling signal with Northern Hemispheric temperature is detected in annual, summer, and winter single-day to monthly maximum precipitation. Generally, the estimates are consistent also when only considering data after 1950, and the scaling of annual maxima is also significant for all individual countries but Austria. However, scaling magnitudes are found to vary considerably between seasons and subregions. Also, scaling with regional temperature is non-significant, except for winter extreme precipitation.



中文翻译:

观察到中欧的极端降水趋势和规模

在本出版物中,我们旨在将中欧极端降水的观测变化与大气的各个大尺度热力学状态联系起来。来自北欧半球和区域温度异常的比例高的,横跨奥地利,瑞士,德国和荷兰的中欧气象站网络的长期(1901-2013年)每日降水记录最大值。在站级估计比例系数,并将其汇总以推断出稳健的区域极端降水与温度的关系。在整个中欧,每年,夏季和冬季的单日至每月最大降水量都检测到总体增强和北半球温度呈正比例变化的信号。通常,仅考虑1950年以后的数据时,估算值也是一致的,年度最大值的规模对于除奥地利以外的所有其他国家也很重要。但是,发现尺度变化幅度在季节和次区域之间有很大差异。此外,除冬季极端降水外,随区域温度变化的比例无关紧要。

更新日期:2020-06-16
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