The National Coastal Property Model (NCPM) simulates flood damages resulting from sea level rise and storm surge along the contiguous U.S. coastline. The model also projects local-level investments in a set of adaptation measures under the assumption that these measures will be adopted when benefits exceed the costs over a 30-year period. However, it has been observed that individuals and communities often underinvest in adaptive measures relative to standard cost-benefit assumptions due to financial, psychological, sociopolitical, and technological factors. This study applies an updated version of the NCPM to incorporate improved cost-benefit tests and to approximate observed sub-optimal flood risk reduction behavior. The updated NCPM is tested for two multi-county sites: Virginia Beach, VA and Tampa, FL. Sub-optimal adaptation approaches slow the implementation of adaptation measures throughout the 100-year simulation and they increase the amount of flood damages, especially early in the simulation. The net effect is an increase in total present value cost of $1.1 to $1.3 billion (2015 USD), representing about a 10% increase compared to optimal adaptation approaches. Future calibrations against historical data and incorporation of non-economic factors driving adaptation decisions could prove useful in better understanding the impacts of continued sub-optimal behavior.

国家沿海财产模型（NCPM）模拟了沿美国连续海岸线的海平面上升和风暴潮造成的洪水破坏。该模型还假设在30年内收益超过成本的情况下将采用这些措施，从而在一系列适应措施中预测了地方投资。但是，已经观察到，由于财务，心理，社会政治和技术因素，相对于标准成本效益假设，个人和社区通常对适应性措施的投资不足。这项研究应用了NCPM的更新版本，以结合改进的成本效益测试并近似观察到的次优洪水风险降低行为。更新的NCPM已在两个多县站点进行了测试：弗吉尼亚州弗吉尼亚海滩和佛罗里达州坦帕。次优适应方法在整个100年的模拟过程中减慢了适应措施的实施速度，并增加了洪灾破坏的数量，尤其是在模拟初期。最终结果是，总现值成本增加了1.1美元，达到13亿美元（2015年美元），与最佳适应方法相比，增加了约10％。未来根据历史数据进行的校准以及纳入驱动适应性决策的非经济因素的合并可能有助于更好地理解持续的次优行为的影响。与最佳适应方法相比，代表了约10％的增长。未来根据历史数据进行的校准以及纳入驱动适应性决策的非经济因素的合并可能有助于更好地理解持续的次优行为的影响。与最佳适应方法相比，代表了约10％的增长。未来根据历史数据进行的校准以及纳入驱动适应性决策的非经济因素的合并可能有助于更好地理解持续的次优行为的影响。