Abstract The Chinook salmon population in Lake Michigan is declining precipitously due to ecological changes, and the impact on recreational fishing value is unknown. We estimate a conditional logit model to characterize how Wisconsin resident anglers react to changes in species-specific availability and catch rates. Using these results, we calculate the non-market value of access to the fishery that reflects current, historical, and potential future fishing conditions. We then predict whether native lake trout and walleye, which are more resilient to the changing conditions in the lake, can maintain the fishery’s value if non-native Chinook salmon collapses. Results show that while large losses would occur absent other improvements, a portion of the fishery’s value could be maintained if substitute species, particularly walleye, improved in quality and were readily accessible.

中文翻译：

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本地物种能否与有价值的外来物种竞争？评估密歇根湖休闲渔业的生态变化

摘要 由于生态变化，密歇根湖的奇努克鲑鱼数量急剧下降，对休闲捕鱼价值的影响尚不清楚。我们估计了一个条件 logit 模型来描述威斯康星州的常住垂钓者如何对特定物种的可用性和捕获率的变化做出反应。使用这些结果，我们计算了反映当前、历史和潜在未来捕捞条件的渔业准入的非市场价值。然后，我们预测，如果非本地的奇努克鲑鱼崩溃，对湖中不断变化的条件更具弹性的本地湖鳟鱼和大眼鱼是否可以保持渔业价值。结果表明，虽然在没有其他改进的情况下会发生大量损失，但如果替代物种，特别是角膜白斑，渔业价值的一部分可以保持，