Abstract Eradication has been achieved for many vertebrate pest control programs, primarily on small, isolated islands, but has never been considered a practical goal for invasive sea lampreys in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Our objective was to examine evidence relevant to the feasibility of setting eradication as a management goal for Great Lakes sea lampreys. Bomford and O'Brien (1995) listed six conditions for successful eradication of a vertebrate pest; here we examine evidence that these conditions are likely to be met for Great Lakes sea lampreys, with a focus on the first condition: that removal of the pest through control can exceed their rate of replenishment. We analyzed two data sets – one empirical and one synthetic – to estimate stock-recruitment relationships and calculate the exploitation rate necessary for extinction. The empirical data set included the effect of existing lampricide control and suggested an exploitation rate of 59%, in addition to lampricide control, would be sufficient for eventual eradication. The synthetic data set, derived from a simulation of stream-level recruitment dynamics in the absence of lampricide control, suggested that an overall exploitation rate of 90% would be sufficient. We suggest that both of these targets could be achieved. Meeting the other conditions will depend on the scale of the eradication effort, and on development of an exploitation strategy, such as genetic biocontrol, that can target sea lampreys in presently invulnerable habitats. Overall, we concluded that eradication of sea lampreys from the Great Lakes should not be dismissed as a prospective goal.

中文翻译：

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从劳伦斯大湖消灭海七鳃鳗是可能的

摘要 许多脊椎动物害虫防治计划已实现根除，主要是在孤立的小岛上，但从未被认为是劳伦斯大湖中入侵海七鳃鳗的实际目标。我们的目标是检查与将根除作为五大湖海七鳃鳗管理目标的可行性相关的证据。Bomford 和 O'Brien (1995) 列出了成功根除脊椎动物害虫的六个条件；在这里，我们检查了大湖海七鳃鳗可能满足这些条件的证据，重点放在第一个条件上：通过控制清除害虫可以超过它们的补充速度。我们分析了两个数据集——一个是经验数据集，一个是合成数据集——以估计种群-招募关系并计算灭绝所需的开发率。经验数据集包括现有杀灭灯剂控制的效果，并表明除了杀灭灯剂控制外，59% 的开发率足以最终根除。合成数据集来源于在没有杀灭灯剂控制的情况下对流级补充动态的模拟，表明 90% 的总体开发率就足够了。我们建议这两个目标都可以实现。满足其他条件将取决于根除工作的规模，以及开发策略的制定，例如可以针对目前无懈可击的栖息地中的海七鳃鳗的基因生物控制。总的来说，我们得出的结论是，从五大湖中消灭海七鳃鳗不应被视为一个预期目标。