Background

Often perceived as a safer smoke, Natural American Spirit (NAS) may find particular appeal in communities with strong non-smoking norms. We hypothesized NAS would be more popular in cities with lower smoking prevalence, with the pattern unique to NAS. We tested household income, cigarette taxes, and young adult population as alternative correlates and examined brand specificity, relative to Marlboro and Pall Mall.

Methods

Using proprietary, city-specific sales estimates obtained from Nielsen for 30 U.S. cities over one year (9/7/18–9/9/19), we computed cigarette sales volume as standard pack units per 10,000 adult smokers for NAS and Marlboro and Pall Mall. Linear regression models examined associations between city-level sales volume and adult smoking prevalence, median household income, the sum of state/local cigarette excise taxes, and young adult population.

Results

NAS sales volume averaged 44,785 packs per 10,000 adult smokers (SD = 47,676). Across 30 cities, adult smoking prevalence averaged 18.0% (SD = 4.5%), median household income averaged $53,677 (SD = $14,825), cigarette excise tax averaged $2.55 (SD = $1.63), and young adult population averaged 10.6% (SD = 2.2%). NAS sales volume was greater in cities with lower adult smoking prevalence (β = −0.39, 95% CI[−0.74, −0.03], p = 0.034), a pattern that was not observed for Marlboro or Pall Mall (ps > 0.356). Marlboro (β = −0.40, 95% CI[-0.76, −0.05], p = 0.027) and Pall Mall (β = −0.48, 95% CI[−0.82, −0.14], p = 0.008) sales volumes were higher in cities where cigarette excise taxes were lower, a pattern not observed for NAS (p = 0.224).

Conclusion

NAS appears to be more popular in cities with lower smoking prevalence and may deter efforts to further decrease prevalence.

中文翻译：

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天然美国烈酒香烟在吸烟率较低的美国城市更受欢迎。

背景

自然美国烈酒 (NAS) 通常被认为是一种更安全的香烟，在具有严格禁烟规范的社区中可能会特别有吸引力。我们假设 NAS 在吸烟率较低的城市会更受欢迎，其模式是 NAS 独有的。我们测试了家庭收入、卷烟税和年轻人口作为替代相关因素，并检查了相对于万宝路和波美尔的品牌特异性。

方法

我们利用尼尔森对美国 30 个城市一年（2018 年 9 月 7 日至 2019 年 9 月 9 日）专有的、特定城市的销售估算，计算了 NAS 和万宝路每 10,000 名成年吸烟者的标准包单位卷烟销量，以及蓓尔商城。线性回归模型研究了城市销量与成人吸烟率、家庭收入中位数、州/地方卷烟消费税总和以及年轻人口之间的关联。

结果

每 10,000 名成年吸烟者平均 NAS 销量为 44,785 包（SD = 47,676）。在 30 个城市中，成人吸烟率平均为 18.0%（SD = 4.5%），平均家庭收入为 53,677 美元（SD = 14,825 美元），卷烟消费税平均为 2.55 美元（SD = 1.63 美元），年轻人口平均为 10 。6%（标准差=2.2%）。在成人吸烟率较低的城市，NAS 销量更大（β = -0.39，95% CI[-0.74，-0.03]，p = 0.034），万宝路或颇迈尔未观察到这种模式 ( p s > 0.356) ）。万宝路 (β = -0.40, 95% CI[-0.76, -0.05], p = 0.027) 和 Pall Mall (β = -0.48, 95% CI[-0.82, -0.14], p = 0.008) 销量较高在卷烟消费税较低的城市，NAS 没有观察到这种模式 ( p  = 0.224)。

结论

NAS 似乎在吸烟率较低的城市更受欢迎，并且可能会阻碍进一步降低吸烟率的努力。