Due to shortage of precipitation, rainfed farming in Iran is facing numerous challenges. Understanding the impact of climate variables on the production of rainfed crops in each region is of utmost importance for dry farming. Based on 11-year (2004–2015) data from synoptic stations in the Qazvin province of Iran, a comprehensive simulation analysis was conducted with AquaCrop-GIS to study the yield and the green and grey water footprint (WF) of the main rainfed crops (wheat and barley) along with the correlation of the target variables (yield and WF components) with the selected climate variables. Based on the estimated values of green and grey WFs, planting of rainfed wheat and barley at Qazvin and Moalem Kalayeh stations with lower total WF will be more beneficial than at other stations. Regression analysis showed that at most stations, reference evapotranspiration had a direct effect on wheat total WF (TWF), while precipitation has a positive effect on barley TWF at Qazvin and Moalem Kalayeh. The regression equation of barley green WF at the Qazvin station showed the highest correlation with climate variables (R = 0.98). TWF of wheat and barley at Buin Zahra had the highest correlation with climate variables (R = 0.73 and 0.85, respectively). Finally, it was concluded that in arid regions, the variability in TWF of rainfed products is greatly influenced by spatio-temporal variations of climate variables.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对伊朗加兹温省雨养小麦和大麦水足迹成分的影响*

由于降水不足，伊朗的雨养农业面临诸多挑战。了解气候变量对每个地区雨养作物生产的影响对于旱作农业至关重要。基于伊朗加兹温省气象站 11 年（2004-2015）数据，使用 AquaCrop-GIS 进行综合模拟分析，研究主要雨育作物的产量和绿色和灰色水足迹（WF） （小麦和大麦）以及目标变量（产量和 WF 分量）与选定气候变量的相关性。根据绿色和灰色 WF 的估计值，在 Qazvin 和 Moalem Kalayeh 站种植雨育小麦和大麦，WF 总量较低，将比其他站更有利。回归分析表明，在大多数站点，参考蒸散量对小麦总 WF (TWF) 有直接影响，而降水对 Qazvin 和 Moalem Kalayeh 的大麦 TWF 有积极影响。Qazvin站大麦绿WF回归方程与气候变量的相关性最高（R=0.98）。Buin Zahra 小麦和大麦的 TWF 与气​​候变量的相关性最高（分别为 R = 0.73 和 0.85）。最后得出结论，在干旱地区，雨养产品TWF的变异性受气候变量时空变化的影响很大。98）。Buin Zahra 小麦和大麦的 TWF 与气​​候变量的相关性最高（分别为 R = 0.73 和 0.85）。最后得出结论，在干旱地区，雨养产品TWF的变异性受气候变量时空变化的影响很大。98）。Buin Zahra 小麦和大麦的 TWF 与气​​候变量的相关性最高（分别为 R = 0.73 和 0.85）。最后得出结论，在干旱地区，雨养产品TWF的变异性受气候变量时空变化的影响很大。