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Probabilistic hazard analysis of impulse waves generated by multiple subaerial landslides and its application to Wu Gorge in Three Gorges Reservoir, China
Engineering Geology ( IF 7.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105773
Juan Du , Kunlong Yin , Thomas Glade , Tsehaie Woldai , Bo Chai , Lili Xiao , Yang Wang

Abstract Subaerial landslides can generate impulse waves in reservoirs, fjords, and other water bodies and cause severe damage to the shipping industry, infrastructure, and human communities along the shorelines. Compared with deterministic hazard models, probabilistic hazard analysis is an important tool for assessing the intensity and exceedance probability of impulse waves generated by multiple landslide sources, which are essential for evidence-based risk mitigation and contingency planning. This paper proposes a methodological procedure for systematic probabilistic hazard analysis of impulse waves generated by subaerial landslides considering all relevant landslide sources and multiple uncertainties (i.e., landslide mechanisms, triggering scenarios, and material parameters). The main steps include: (1) definition of the source parameters by parameterizing the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this respect, the logic tree, event tree, and Monte Carlo models were used to organize the uncertainties of landslide mechanism models, parametric scenarios, and material parameters, respectively; (2) estimation of generated waves based on a landslide dynamic analytical model and previously validated empirical wave models derived from prototype scaled experiments; and (3) aggregation of the hazard analysis results in the form of hazard maps and probability maps under parametric scenarios and a specific scenario. Considering the Wu Gorge in the Three Gorges Reservoir as a case study, soil slides and unstable rock slopes were analyzed to quantify the wave hazard along the reservoir under parametric and specific scenarios while considering rainfall and water level fluctuations. The results show considerable wave hazard in the Wu Gorge. For a 20-year return period, the maximum expected height of propagation waves is 14.41 m. The probability of experiencing propagation waves higher than 2 m in 20 years is over 50% in the river segment with high landslide density. The results of the probabilistic wave hazard analysis could be aggregated and disaggregated to accommodate specific requirements of wave risk management.

中文翻译:

多次地面滑坡冲击波概率危害分析及其在三峡水库巫峡的应用

摘要 地面滑坡会在水库、峡湾和其他水体中产生冲击波,对沿岸的航运业、基础设施和人类社区造成严重破坏。与确定性灾害模型相比,概率灾害分析是评估多个滑坡源产生的冲击波的强度和超越概率的重要工具,这对于循证风险缓解和应急计划至关重要。考虑到所有相关的滑坡源和多种不确定性(即滑坡机制、触发情景和材料参数),本文提出了一种对地面滑坡产生的脉冲波进行系统概率危险分析的方法论程序。主要步骤包括:(1) 通过参数化认知和偶然的不确定性来定义源参数。在这方面,分别使用逻辑树、事件树和蒙特卡罗模型来组织滑坡机制模型、参数情景和材料参数的不确定性;(2) 基于滑坡动力学分析模型和先前验证的原型比例实验得出的经验波模型来估计生成的波浪;(3)在参数化场景和特定场景下,以危害图和概率图的形式聚合危害分析结果。以三峡水库巫峡为例,在考虑降雨和水位波动的同时,分析了土壤滑坡和不稳定的岩石斜坡,以量化参数和特定场景下水库沿线的波浪危害。结果表明巫峡存在相当大的波浪危害。对于 20 年的重现期,传播波的最大预期高度为 14.41 m。在滑坡密度高的河段,20年内出现2m以上传播波的概率超过50%。概率波浪危害分析的结果可以汇总和分解,以适应波浪风险管理的特定要求。在滑坡密度高的河段,20年内出现2m以上传播波的概率超过50%。概率波浪危害分析的结果可以汇总和分解,以适应波浪风险管理的特定要求。在滑坡密度高的河段,20年内出现2m以上传播波的概率超过50%。概率波浪危害分析的结果可以汇总和分解,以适应波浪风险管理的特定要求。
更新日期:2020-10-01
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