Journal of Biological Dynamics ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-22 , DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1788182 Legesse Lemecha Obsu 1 , Shiferaw Feyissa Balcha 1
In this paper, we apply optimal control theory to a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission model given by a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. Optimal control strategies are obtained by minimizing the number of exposed and infected population considering the cost of implementation. The existence of optimal controls and characterization is established using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. An expression for the basic reproduction number is derived in terms of control variables. Then the sensitivity of basic reproduction number with respect to model parameters is also analysed. Numerical simulation results demonstrated good agreement with our analytical results. Finally, the findings of this study shows that comprehensive impacts of prevention, intensive medical care and surface disinfection strategies outperform in reducing the disease epidemic with optimum implementation cost.
中文翻译:
COVID-19传播风险的最佳控制策略。
在本文中,我们将最优控制理论应用于由非线性常微分方程组给出的新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)传播模型。考虑到实施成本,可以通过使接触人群和感染人群的数量最小化来获得最佳控制策略。最优控制和特征的存在是使用庞特里亚金的最大原理确定的。基本再现数的表达式是根据控制变量得出的。然后,还分析了基本再生次数对模型参数的敏感性。数值模拟结果与我们的分析结果吻合良好。最后,这项研究的结果表明,预防的综合影响,