In this study, we present the results of strong ground motion simulation carried out for a potential earthquake (M_w7.3) in the Kopili source zone of northeast India using the stochastic finite fault modeling technique. Prior to simulation of the potential event, the technique was validated by simulating a recorded earthquake M_w5.3, which was located close to the Nagaon district of Assam, India. The earthquake records (M_w5.3) of ten stations in the study region were analyzed, and average source parameters, namely corner frequency, seismic moment, stress drop and source radius, estimated to be 0.48 Hz, 1.44E + 24 dyne-cm, 103.4 bar and 2.7 km, respectively. While estimating the source parameters, the path attenuation parameters (Q and k_o) also constrained at each seismic station. Using the constrained attenuation parameters, site amplification factors and source parameters, we simulated strong ground motion time histories for M_w5.3 event at individual sites and found them comparable with amplitude and frequency content of the respective observed records satisfactorily. The results, therefore, validated the technique used in the study. Further, the fault parameters, site amplification factors and average of the constrained attenuation parameters were used in simulation of the potential event (M_w7.3) and strong ground motion predicted for the entire northeast region (NER) at a grid interval of 0.5°. We used average values of constrained quality factor (Q) and Kappa parameter (k_o) equivalent to 182f^0.95 and 0.038, respectively, in the simulation. It is apparent that the simulated PGA conditionally followed the attenuation curves of the region, and hence, we suggest developing an appropriate attenuation curve for the NER. The study reveals that the sites located up to 250 km distance away from the source zone may experience significant PGA ranging between 160 Gals and 360 Gals. The cities located within this zone, viz., Tezpur, Nagaon, Udalguri, Diphu and Bomdila, may witness strong to very strong ground shaking associated with substantial damage to buildings and other important structures in the region.

在这项研究中，我们介绍了使用随机有限断层建模技术对印度东北部科比利震源区的潜在地震（M _w 7.3）进行的强地面运动模拟的结果。在此之前的潜在事件的模拟，该技术是通过模拟地震记录验证中号_W¯¯ 5.3，这是靠近印度阿萨姆邦的纳加奥恩区。分析了研究区域十个台站的地震记录（M _w 5.3），平均震源参数，即拐角频率，地震矩，应力降和震源半径，估计为0.48 Hz，1.44E + 24达因-厘米，分别为103.4巴和2.7公里。在估算源参数时，路径衰减参数（Q和k _o）也受制于每个地震台站。使用受约束的衰减参数，站点放大因子和源参数，我们模拟了单个站点上M _w 5.3事件的强烈地面运动时间历史，发现它们可以令人满意地与相应观测记录的振幅和频率含量相媲美。因此，结果验证了该研究中使用的技术。此外，故障参数，站点放大因子和约束衰减参数的平均值用于模拟整个东北地区（NER）的潜在事件（M _w 7.3）和强地面运动，网格间隔为0.5°。我们使用约束品质因数（Q）和Kappa参数（k _o）分别等于182 f ^0.95和0.038。显然，模拟的PGA有条件地遵循该区域的衰减曲线，因此，我们建议为NER开发适当的衰减曲线。研究表明，距源区最远250 km的站点可能会经历160 Gals至360 Gals之间的显着PGA。该区域内的城市，即特兹布尔，那加翁，乌代古里，迪普和邦迪拉，可能会目睹强烈到非常强烈的地震动，并对该地区的建筑物和其他重要建筑物造成重大破坏。