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The economic impacts of harmful algal blooms on tourism: an examination of Southwest Florida using a spline regression approach
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-21 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04182-7
Andrew Bechard

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) can be a natural hazard unlike anything else. Whereas a hurricane or tornado has a sudden and devastating impact to an area, an HAB can slowly impact people and the environment over the course of weeks, even months. Karenia brevis, more commonly known as red tide, can have this effect along the Gulf Coast of Florida, lasting for many weeks in a row, causing large-scale deaths in fish and other marine life, and respiratory issues in humans. These harmful effects can effect tourism, as visitors are not able to enjoy the coastlines Florida is famous for. We test a 6 county region, from Pinellas County, FL down to Collier County, FL, to determine the magnitude with which an additional day of red tide affects tourism-related revenues. Using a spline regression approach, we find that an additional day of red tide in a month with 17 days or more of red tide drives monthly lodging sector sales down by 1–2%, and restaurant sector sales down by 0.5–1%. As these blooms are increasing in frequency and persistency, it becomes of great importance to counties and effected businesses to control and mitigate red tide blooms as soon as possible. If not, losses and harmful effects will only continue to grow and become detrimental to the environment and economy.



中文翻译:

有害藻类繁殖对旅游业的经济影响:使用样条回归方法检验佛罗里达西南部

有害的藻华(HABs)不同于其他任何事物,都是自然危害。飓风或龙卷风会对一个地区造成突然而破坏性的影响,而民政事务局却可以在数周甚至数月的时间内缓慢影响人们和环境。短的卡伦尼亚小红潮(Karenia brevis)可以在佛罗里达州墨西哥湾沿岸产生这种影响,连续持续数周,造成鱼类和其他海洋生物的大规模死亡,以及人类的呼吸系统疾病。这些有害影响会影响旅游业,因为游客无法享受佛罗里达州著名的海岸线。我们测试了从佛罗里达州皮涅拉斯县到佛罗里达州科利尔县的6个县地区,以确定额外的赤潮一天影响旅游相关收入的程度。使用样条回归方法,我们发现,如果一个月中有17天或更长时间的赤潮,又增加了一天的涨潮,这将使住宿行业的月度销售额下降1-2%,而餐饮业的月度下降0.5-1%。随着这些水华的发生频率和持续时间的增加,对县和受影响企业来说,尽快控制和缓解赤潮水华变得至关重要。如果不是这样,损失和有害影响将只会继续增长,并有损于环境和经济。

更新日期:2020-07-22
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