ABSTRACT

Recent empirical studies indicated that using autonomous vehicles (AVs) can reduce commuters' value of time. In this context, this paper investigates how variation in value of time for AVs will reshape the commuting dynamics in the short-run and the implication on AV-related policies in the long run. We find that in the short run, the adoption of AV can create more congestion delays since delay becomes cheaper for commuters. In the long run, a number of external factors such as ownership cost and safety concerns may affect commuters' preference for AVs as against to traditional vehicles (TVs). This will influence the AV penetration, which in turn affects the daily commuting equilibrium. Multiple long-run equilibria with different AV penetrations may exist, depending on the additional cost/benefit of AVs with respect to TVs. Government subsidies may be needed to drive the system from inefficient long-run equilibrium to a more efficient one.

摘要

最近的实证研究表明，使用自动驾驶汽车 (AV) 可以降低通勤者的时间价值。在此背景下，本文研究了自动驾驶汽车时间价值的变化将如何在短期内重塑通勤动态，以及从长远来看对自动驾驶汽车相关政策的影响。我们发现，在短期内，采用自动驾驶会造成更多的拥堵延迟，因为延迟对通勤者来说变得更便宜。从长远来看，拥有成本和安全问题等一些外部因素可能会影响通勤者对 AV 的偏好，而不是传统车辆 (TV)。这将影响自动驾驶汽车的普及率，进而影响日常通勤平衡。可能存在具有不同 AV 渗透率的多个长期均衡，这取决于 AV 相对于电视的额外成本/收益。