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Tornado Risk Climatology in Europe
Atmosphere ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-21 , DOI: 10.3390/atmos11070768
Jürgen Grieser , Phil Haines

Violent tornadoes are rare in Europe but they can have devastating effects. Damage associated with individual tornadoes can reach several billion euros and they have caused hundreds of fatalities. The tornado risk varies considerably over Europe, but so far only a few national maps of tornado risk and one Europe-wide map exist. We show several different ways to create quantitative maps of tornado occurrence rates as follows: Kernel smoothing of observations, climatologies of convective parameters from reanalysis, output of a logistic regression model to link convective parameters with observed tornadoes, orography-dependent climatologies and finally the population-bias corrected tornado occurrence rates from the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Europe Severe Convective Storm Model. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of each approach and compare the results. While the climatologies created from the individual methods show a lot of qualitative similarities, we advocate to combine the methods to achieve the most reliable quantitative climatology.

中文翻译:

欧洲龙卷风风险气候学

暴力龙卷风在欧洲很少见,但可能造成破坏性影响。与个别龙卷风相关的损失可能达到数十亿欧元,并造成数百人死亡。在欧洲,龙卷风的风险差异很大,但到目前为止,仅存在一些国家的龙卷风风险地图和一张欧洲范围的地图。我们展示了几种不同的方法来创建龙卷风发生率的定量图,如下所示:观测值的核平滑,重新分析的对流参数的气候,逻辑回归模型的输出以将对流参数与观测到的龙卷风联系起来,与地形有关的气候以及最终人口-bias通过风险管理解决方案(RMS)欧洲强对流风暴模型校正了龙卷风的发生率。我们讨论了每种方法的优缺点,并比较了结果。虽然通过单独方法创建的气候在质量上有很多相似之处,但我们主张将这些方法组合起来以实现最可靠的定量气候。
更新日期:2020-07-21
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