Abstract—The effectiveness of earthquake prediction using the method of the minimum area of alarm when aftershocks are removed from the earthquake catalogs is evaluated. Testing was performed using the catalogs of earthquakes in Japan and the Mediterranean over the 1988–2019 period. The results of prediction of target earthquakes with aftershock sequences and the prediction of only main shocks obtained by the grid fields that were calculated from the full catalogs and the catalogs with the aftershocks removed are compared. This testing shows that the removal of aftershocks from the catalog of target earthquakes decreases the prediction quality. This may occur due to the decreasing number of training examples. Removal of aftershocks from the earthquake catalog to calculate the fields of prediction features makes sense if there is strong aftershock activity in the region.

摘要—评估了在从地震目录中删除余震时使用最小警报区域方法进行地震预测的有效性。使用1988-2019年期间日本和地中海的地震目录进行了测试。比较了具有余震序列的目标地震的预测结果和仅根据网格目录获得的主震的预测结果，这些网格是根据完整目录和除去了余震的目录计算出来的。该测试表明，从目标地震目录中删除余震会降低预测质量。这可能是由于训练示例数量减少所致。