Environmental shifts are projected to lead to expansions, contractions and shifts in the geographic range of species in response to climate change. Most distribution forecasting methods assume that species respond to the environment as an undifferentiated entity along their entire distribution. However, environmental heterogeneity along a species’ range plays a key role in driving the evolutionary trajectories of populations and species by determining intraspecific variation in morphological, physiological and life history traits. Therefore, for widely distributed species with phylogeographic structure, the construction of SDM where lineages are pooled within the species level might not accurately describe the niche of sets of lineages that are adapted to different climatic conditions. Pleurodema thaul is an endemic frog distributed from the Atacama Desert to the temperate rainforest in southern Chile and Argentina. Along this latitudinal gradient, populations exhibit variation in thermal physiology, life history traits and phylogenetic structure. We evaluated whether evolutionary lineages differ in their environmental and geographic niches and determined how phylogenetic, environmental and geographical distances covary between clades. Our results indicate that: (i) all clades of this species differ in their estimated niches, (ii) there is little overlap between geographic areas and environmental niches estimated for each clade of P. thaul and (iii) phylogenetic distances among clades of P. thaul are not correlated with environmental nor geographical distances. The development of models restricted to species’ genetic lineages can become an important first step to determine how environmental changes are going to affect the distribution of species.

中文翻译：

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种内变异对生态位分化和物种分布模型的重要性：以生态多样的青蛙Pleurodema thaul为例

预计环境变化将导致物种的地理范围扩展，收缩和变化，以应对气候变化。大多数分布预测方法都假设物种对整个环境的响应是作为未分化实体的。然而，通过确定形态，生理和生活史特征的种内变异，沿着物种范围的环境异质性在驱动种群和物种的进化轨迹方面起着关键作用。因此，对于具有地理结构的分布广泛的物种，在物种水平内合并谱系的SDM的构建可能无法准确地描述适应不同气候条件的谱系集的生态位。leu侧目是从阿塔卡马沙漠分布到智利南部和阿根廷的温带雨林的地方性青蛙。沿着这个纬度梯度，种群表现出热生理，生活史特征和系统发育结构的变化。我们评估了进化谱系是否在环境和地理环境方面有所不同，并确定进化枝之间的系统发育，环境和地理距离如何变化。我们的结果表明：（i）该物种的所有进化枝的估计生态位都不同，（ii）估计每个P. thaul进化枝的地理区域与环境生态位之间几乎没有重叠，并且（iii）P进化枝之间的系统发育距离塔尔与环境或地理距离无关。限制物种遗传谱系的模型的开发可以成为确定环境变化将如何影响物种分布的重要的第一步。