International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change would lead to up to 55 million people who are undernourished in 2050. Without adaptation through trade, the impacts of global climate change would increase to 73 million people who are undernourished (+33%). Reduction in tariffs as well as institutional and infrastructural barriers would decrease the negative impact to 20 million (−64%) people. We assess the adaptation effect of trade and climate-induced specialization patterns. The adaptation effect is strongest for hunger-affected import-dependent regions. However, in hunger-affected export-oriented regions, partial trade integration can lead to increased exports at the expense of domestic food availability. Although trade integration is a key component of adaptation, it needs sensitive implementation to benefit all regions.

国际贸易使我们能够利用区域差异来应对气候变化的影响，并日益被视为一种潜在的适应机制。在这里，我们着眼于在广泛的气候未来的替代贸易情景下通过国际贸易减少饥饿。在目前的贸易一体化水平下，气候变化将在2050年导致5500万营养不良的人。如果不通过贸易进行适应，全球气候变化的影响将增加到7300万人营养不良（+ 33％）。降低关税以及机构和基础设施的壁垒将减少对2000万（-64％）人的负面影响。我们评估贸易和气候导致的专业化模式的适应效果。对于受饥饿影响的依赖进口的地区，适应效果最强。但是，在受饥饿影响的以出口为导向的地区，部分贸易一体化可能导致出口增加，但以牺牲国内粮食供应为代价。尽管贸易一体化是适应的关键组成部分，但它需要敏感地执行才能使所有地区受益。