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Ocean‐Only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ( IF 6.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-12 , DOI: 10.1029/2019ms002027
Alexander Todd 1 , Laure Zanna 1, 2 , Matthew Couldrey 3 , Jonathan Gregory 3, 4 , Quran Wu 3 , John A. Church 5 , Riccardo Farneti 6 , René Navarro‐Labastida 6, 7 , Kewei Lyu 8 , Oleg Saenko 9 , Duo Yang 9 , Xuebin Zhang 8
Affiliation  

There is large uncertainty in the future regional sea level change under anthropogenic climate change. Our study presents and uses a novel design of ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments to investigate the ocean's response to surface buoyancy and momentum flux perturbations without atmosphere‐ocean feedbacks (e.g., without surface restoring or bulk formulae), as part of the Flux‐Anomaly‐Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP). In an ensemble of OGCMs forced with identical surface flux perturbations, simulated dynamic sea level (DSL) and ocean heat content (OHC) change demonstrate considerable disagreement. In the North Atlantic, the disagreement in DSL and OHC change between models is mainly due to differences in the residual (resolved and eddy) circulation change, with a large spread in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakening (20–50%). In the western North Pacific, OHC change is similar among the OGCM ensemble, but the contributing physical processes differ. For the Southern Ocean, isopycnal and diapycnal mixing change dominate the spread in OHC change. In addition, a component of the atmosphere‐ocean feedbacks are quantified by comparing coupled, atmosphere‐ocean GCM (AOGCM) and OGCM FAFMIP experiments with consistent ocean models. We find that there is 10% more AMOC weakening in AOGCMs relative to OGCMs, since the extratropical North Atlantic SST cooling due to heat redistribution amplifies the surface heat flux perturbation. This component of the atmosphere‐ocean feedbacks enhances the pattern of North Atlantic OHC and DSL change, with relatively stronger increases and decreases in the tropics and extratropics, respectively.

中文翻译:

仅海洋的FAFMIP:了解海洋热量含量和动态海平面变化的区域模式

人为气候变化下未来区域海平面变化存在很大的不确定性。我们的研究提出并使用了一种新颖的海洋通用环流模型(OGCM)实验设计,以研究海洋在没有大气-海洋反馈(例如,没有进行表面复原或体积公式计算)的情况下对浮力和动量通量扰动的响应。 -异常强制模型比较项目(FAFMIP)。在强迫具有相同表面通量扰动的OGCM集合中,模拟的动态海平面(DSL)和海洋热量含量(OHC)的变化显示出很大的分歧。在北大西洋,模型之间DSL和OHC变化的差异主要是由于残留(分辨和涡流)环流变化的差异,大西洋的经向翻转环流(AMOC)分布较大,减弱了(20–50%)。在北太平洋西部,OGCM总体中OHC的变化相似,但物理过程有所不同。对于南大洋,等渗和二叠氮混合变化主导了OHC变化的扩散。此外,通过将耦合的大气海洋GCM(AOGCM)和OGCM FAFMIP实验与一致的海洋模型进行比较,可以量化大气-海洋反馈的一部分。我们发现,相对于OGCM,AOGCM中的AMOC衰减要多10%,这是因为由于热量再分配而引起的温带北大西洋SST冷却会放大表面热通量扰动。大气-海洋反馈的这一组成部分增强了北大西洋OHC和DSL变化的模式,
更新日期:2020-08-12
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