The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

中文翻译：

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欧洲海豚（Myocastor coypus）的潜在当前分布和气候变化在不久的将来引发了变化

巨水鼠（Myocastor coypus）是南美本地生的一种半水生啮齿动物，已在欧洲和世界其他地方入侵。尽管最近在《欧盟外来入侵物种条例》中被列为欧盟关注的物种，但仍缺少对当前欧洲发生情况及其潜在当前和未来分布的分析。在1980年至2018年之间，我们从一系列来源和28个欧洲国家收集了24,232例海狸鼠记录（对应于5×5 km的25,534个网格），并时空分析了它们，并将其归类为持久性水平。使用logistic回归，我们在所有持久性水平上构建了共识预测，以描述海狸鼠在2041-2060年在四种不同气候情景下在欧洲的潜在当前分布及其变化。在所有存在的网格单元中，有45.5％至少显示出建立的早期迹象（暂时覆盖至少一个世代长度（即5年）的记录），而9.8％被认为包含已建立的种群（即连续覆盖三个世代的长度）。在分析的预测因子中，最暖季的平均温度（bio10），平均日温度范围（bio2）和最冷月份的最低温度（bio6）是最重要的。总共有42.9％的研究区域被归类为在当前气候条件下合适的区域，其中72.6％属于当前知识却尚未有人使用。因此，我们表明，海狸鼠迄今尚未到达欧洲所有可能合适的地区。这些覆盖了欧洲的大部分温带地区（大西洋，大陆和Pannonian生物地理区域），以及地中海和黑海的沿海地区。对适当和被占地区的比较表明，到目前为止，没有一个受影响的国家达到饱和。在气候变化情景下，合适的区域将略微移向北部地区，而预计南欧和中欧的适宜性将总体下降（根据情景，合适区域的总体下降幅度为2％至8％）。但是，当前大多数适合海狸鼠的地区在将来可能会如此。我们强调有必要进一步调查温度上限，以正确解释南欧海狸的未来气候适应性。根据我们的结果，我们确定未来入侵风险最大的区域，并提供管理建议。