With a 264 million population and the second highest male smoking prevalence in the world, Indonesia hosted over 60 million smokers in 2018. However, the government still has not ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. In the meantime, tobacco import increases rapidly in Indonesia. These create a double, public health and economic burden for Indonesia’s welfare. Our study analyzed the trend of tobacco import in five countries: Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. Also, we analyze the tobacco control policies implemented in these countries and determine some lessons learn for Indonesia. We conducted quantitative analyses on tobacco production, consumption, export, and import during 1990–2016 in the five countries. Data were analyzed using simple ordinary least square regressions, correcting for time series autocorrelation. We also conducted a desk review on the tobacco control policies implemented in the five countries. While local production decreased by almost 20% during 1990–2016, the proportion of tobacco imports out of domestic production quadrupled from 17 to 65%. Similarly, the ratio of tobacco imports to exports reversed from 0.7 (i.e., exports were higher) to 2.9 (i.e., import were 2.9 times higher than export) in 1990 and 2016, respectively. This condition is quite different from the other four respective countries in the observation where their tobacco export is higher than the import. From the tobacco control point of view, the four other countries have ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). The situation is unlikely for Indonesia to either reduce tobacco consumption or improve the local tobacco farmer’s welfare, considering that the number of imports continued to increase. Emulating from the four countries, Indonesia must ratify the FCTC and implement stricter tobacco control policies to decrease tobacco consumption and import.

中文翻译：

---

五个国家的烟草进口和烟草控制比较：印度尼西亚的经验教训。

印度尼西亚拥有2.64亿人口，是全球男性吸烟率第二高的国家，2018年接待了超过6000万烟民。但是，政府仍未批准《烟草控制框架公约》。同时，印度尼西亚的烟草进口迅速增加。这些给印度尼西亚的福利造成了双重的公共卫生和经济负担。我们的研究分析了五个国家（印度尼西亚，巴基斯坦，孟加拉国，津巴布韦和莫桑比克）的烟草进口趋势。此外，我们分析了在这些国家实施的烟草控制政策，并确定了印度尼西亚的一些经验教训。我们对这五个国家的1990–2016年间的烟草生产，消费，出口和进口进行了定量分析。使用简单的普通最小二乘回归分析数据，校正时间序列自相关。我们还对在这五个国家实施的烟草控制政策进行了案头审查。在1990-2016年期间，尽管本地产量下降了近20％，但国内生产中烟草进口的比例却从17％增至65％，增长了三倍。同样，烟草进口与出口的比例分别从1990年的0.7（即出口增加）逆转至2.9（即进口比出口高2.9倍）。在观察到的烟草出口量高于进口量的情况下，这一状况与其他四个国家大不相同。从烟草控制的角度来看，其他四个国家已经批准了《烟草控制框架公约》（FCTC）。考虑到进口数量继续增加，印度尼西亚不太可能减少烟草消费或改善当地烟农的福利。印度尼西亚必须从这四个国家效仿，批准《烟草控制框架公约》并执行更严格的烟草控制政策，以减少烟草消费和进口。