Port infrastructure is critical to the world's economy and has seen major expansion over the last few decades. In the future there are likely to be further demands for port capacity which will require additional port area while existing ports will need upgrading in response to sea‐level rise to maintain current levels of operability. This analysis considers potential changes to 2050 under four climate‐based scenarios which aim to explore changes in international maritime trade consistent with global temperature increases of 2 °C and 4 °C and the implications of associated sea‐level rise. All scenarios anticipate a significant increase in trade, and a change in distribution across commodities. The demand for port handling areas in 2050 is roughly double to quadruple that of the baseline (2010) across scenarios. The maximum demand occurs under an unmitigated climate and high intensity in commodity movement with a maximum area in 2050 of 5,054km². The minimum demand (2,510km²) occurs under a scenario of regionalized green energy production and lower material intensity. The total global investment costs for port adaptation to sea‐level rise and provision of new areas are between 223 and 768 billion USD to 2050. These are dominated by the need for new area construction with the adaptation of base year areas to relative sea‐level rise representing a maximum of 6% of total costs globally. Therefore, in addition to adapting existing port areas to sea‐level rise, it is equally or more important to consider provision of new ports.

中文翻译：

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到2050年的港口需求：气候政策，贸易增长和海平面上升的影响

港口基础设施对世界经济至关重要，并且在过去的几十年中已经发生了巨大的扩张。将来，对港口容量的需求可能会进一步增加，这将需要更多的港口面积，而现有港口将需要升级以应对海平面上升，以保持当前的可操作性水平。该分析考虑了四种基于气候的情景下到2050年的潜在变化，这些情景旨在探讨与全球温度2°C和4°C升高以及相关海平面升高的影响相一致的国际海洋贸易变化。所有情况都预计贸易将显着增加，大宗商品的分布也会发生变化。在各种情况下，2050年港口装卸区的需求大约是基准线（2010年）的两倍至四倍。²。最低需求（2,510km ²）发生在区域化绿色能源生产和材料强度较低的情况下。到2050年，全球港口适应海平面上升和提供新区域的总投资成本在223至7680亿美元之间。其中主要是对新区域建设的需求，而基准年区域必须适应相对海平面的变化。上升幅度最高，占全球总成本的6％。因此，除了使现有的港口区域适应海平面上升之外，考虑提供新的港口同等或更重要。