Abstract Permanent sliding displacement analysis is commonly used to evaluate the seismic performance of slopes. Specifically, the fully probabilistic seismic slope displacement hazard analysis (PSSDHA) has attracted increasing attention recently, since it appropriately accounts for various sources of uncertainties associated with the estimation of sliding displacement. Within this analysis, the uncertainty of soil strength parameters (e.g., effective cohesion c′ and effective internal friction angle ϕ′) is commonly quantified by a logic-tree method, in which the spatial variability of c′ and ϕ′ is simply ignored. This study aims at proposing an extended PSSDHA framework by rigorously accounting for the spatial variability of c′ and ϕ′, and then investigating its influence on the resultant slope displacement hazard curves based on the Newmark rigid-block model. Two different approaches, namely an analytical-based and a simulation-based method, are proposed separately. The results of the analytical-based method are found to be consistent with those obtained by the simulation-based one. It is also shown that the displacement hazard would be underestimated if the spatial variability of c′ and ϕ′ is ignored; such underestimation is more significant for slopes with soil parameters exhibiting weak c′-ϕ′ correlation and strong spatial variability. Besides, it suggests that the proper configuration of logic-tree framework plays an important role in developing displacement hazard curves, and a relatively large range of discrete strength values is recommended to better account for the effect of the spatial variability of soil strength parameters.

中文翻译：

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土体强度参数空间变异性对概率地震边坡位移危险性分析的影响

摘要 永久滑动位移分析是评价边坡抗震性能的常用方法。具体而言，完全概率地震边坡位移危险分析（PSSDHA）最近引起了越来越多的关注，因为它适当地考虑了与滑动位移估计相关的各种不确定性来源。在该分析中，土壤强度参数（例如，有效内聚力 c' 和有效内摩擦角 ϕ'）的不确定性通常通过逻辑树方法进行量化，其中 c' 和 ϕ' 的空间变异性被简单地忽略。本研究旨在通过严格考虑 c′ 和 ϕ′ 的空间变异性，提出扩展的 PSSDHA 框架，然后基于 Newmark 刚性块模型研究其对合成边坡位移风险曲线的影响。分别提出了两种不同的方法，即基于分析的方法和基于模拟的方法。发现基于分析的方法的结果与基于模拟的方法获得的结果一致。还表明，如果忽略 c′ 和 ϕ′ 的空间变异性，则会低估位移风险；这种低估对于土壤参数表现出弱 c′-ϕ′ 相关性和强空间变异性的斜坡更为显着。此外，这表明逻辑树框架的正确配置在开发位移风险曲线方面起着重要作用，