Abstract DUSTER (Dust from the Upper Stratosphere Tracking Experiment and Retrieval) is a balloon-born instrument designed to collect dust particles with sizes less than 30 microns in the upper stratosphere (30 – 40 km), to be analysed in laboratory. In support to the DUSTER flight campaigns, it is crucial to predict the balloon trajectories according to atmospheric circulation and to estimate the landing. For a feasibility study of an Antarctic flight campaign we predict the DUSTER trajectory with a statistical approach, considering safety issues and the pivotal instrument recovery, to retrieve the collected samples. To this aim, we used the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) meteorological data and the HYSPLIT software (HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory). The Antarctic Polar Vortex, every year in the period December – January, generates a counter clockwise circulation (averaged wind speeds around 36 m/s from 29 to 35 km of altitudes).We evaluated the best launch opportunity windows for DUSTER to take advantage of the Polar Vortex starting from historical data. The NOAA meteorological data (Global reanalysis of atmospheric data – GFS Analysis and Forecasts products of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions - NCEP)from 1994 to 2015 allowed us to select the period after the 10th of January as the launch window maximizing the DUSTER time of flight. We used HYSPLIT program to project the balloon simulated trajectories on ground, providing critical information for the recovery operations. Successively, with the aim of becoming autonomous within the DUSTER team, i.e. taking care of the complete procedure to realize a DUSTER flight campaign, we developed a dedicated software, the DUSTER Flight Simulation Predictor(DFSP) that considers the ascent, floating and descent phases and the meteorological conditions. DFSP considers the balloon dynamics, the heat flow transfer between the balloon and the atmosphere, and the lifting variable gas mass to simulate the complete flight. We are now able to obtain balloon trajectory simulations with a flight time up to 240 hours, starting and ending in any Earth geographical position. In the following paper, a comparison between real DUSTER flight data in 2009 and simulated DFSP data will be shown.

中文翻译：

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零压气球轨迹预测：除尘器飞行模拟

摘要 DUSTER（Dust from the Upper Stratosphere Tracking Experiment and Retrieval）是一种气球携带仪器，旨在收集上层平流层（30-40公里）小于30微米的尘埃颗粒，并在实验室进行分析。为了支持 DUSTER 飞行活动，根据大气环流预测气球轨迹并估计着陆至关重要。对于南极飞行活动的可行性研究，我们使用统计方法预测 DUSTER 轨迹，考虑安全问题和关键仪器恢复，以检索收集的样本。为此，我们使用了 NOAA（国家海洋和大气管理局）气象数据和 HYSPLIT 软件（HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory）。南极极地涡旋，每年 12 月至 1 月期间，都会产生逆时针环流（29 至 35 公里高度的平均风速约为 36 m/s）。我们评估了 DUSTER 的最佳发射机会窗口，以利用从历史数据。1994 年至 2015 年的 NOAA 气象数据（全球大气数据再分析 - 国家环境预测中心 - NCEP 的 GFS 分析和预测产品）允许我们选择 1 月 10 日之后的时期作为发射窗口，最大限度地提高 DUSTER 时间航班。我们使用 HYSPLIT 程序在地面上投影气球模拟轨迹，为恢复操作提供关键信息。之后，为了在 DUSTER 团队中实现自治，即 考虑到实现 DUSTER 飞行活动的完整程序，我们开发了一个专用软件，即 DUSTER 飞行模拟预测器 (DFSP)，它考虑了上升、漂浮和下降阶段以及气象条件。DFSP 考虑气球动力学、气球与大气之间的热流传递以及提升的可变气体质量来模拟完整的飞行。我们现在能够获得飞行时间长达 240 小时的气球轨迹模拟，在任何地球地理位置开始和结束。在下面的论文中，将展示 2009 年真实 DUSTER 飞行数据与模拟 DFSP 数据之间的比较。漂浮和下降阶段以及气象条件。DFSP 考虑气球动力学、气球与大气之间的热流传递以及提升的可变气体质量来模拟完整的飞行。我们现在能够获得飞行时间长达 240 小时的气球轨迹模拟，在任何地球地理位置开始和结束。在下面的论文中，将展示 2009 年真实 DUSTER 飞行数据与模拟 DFSP 数据之间的比较。漂浮和下降阶段以及气象条件。DFSP 考虑气球动力学、气球与大气之间的热流传递以及提升的可变气体质量来模拟完整的飞行。我们现在能够获得飞行时间长达 240 小时的气球轨迹模拟，在任何地球地理位置开始和结束。在下面的论文中，将展示 2009 年真实 DUSTER 飞行数据与模拟 DFSP 数据之间的比较。