Severe catastrophic natural disasters adversely affect housing stock and regional capacity to build and repair houses, with unfavorable impacts on the business continuity of industrial and business organizations resting on that affected community. Restoring industrial capacity and business continuity is crucial for the organizations’ survival in the aftermath of a disaster but the process takes time while the affected region faces an unexpected surge in the demand for housing. Modeling approaches largely used in the supply chain management realm may support humanitarian logistics and policy-making by providing a testbed in which supply chain elements of the recovery process can be examined before implementing. This research presents a system dynamics model that considers the problem of housing recovery from the demand and supply perspective and provides significant insights for policymakers into how the production of permanent housing depends upon the uncertainties and feedback effects of material and labor. In order to highlight its utility, a hypothetical scenario in which a hurricane hits the U.S. Hampton Roads region, which is a major population center along the mid-Atlantic coast, has been configured by using actual data collected from both governmental and academic sources.

中文翻译：

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灾难后的供应链建模：房屋恢复中的系统动力学方法

严重的灾难性自然灾害对住房存量和区域建造和维修房屋的能力产生不利影响，对依赖受影响社区的工业和商业组织的业务连续性产生不利影响。恢复工业能力和业务连续性对于组织在灾难后的生存至关重要，但这个过程需要时间，而受灾地区面临着住房需求的意外激增。主要用于供应链管理领域的建模方法可以通过提供一个测试平台来支持人道主义物流和决策，在该平台中可以在实施之前检查恢复过程的供应链要素。本研究提出了一个系统动力学模型，该模型从需求和供应的角度考虑住房恢复问题，并为政策制定者提供了重要的见解，以了解永久性住房的生产如何取决于物质和劳动力的不确定性和反馈效应。为了突出其效用，我们使用从政府和学术来源收集的实际数据配置了飓风袭击美国汉普顿路地区（大西洋中部沿岸的主要人口中心）的假设情景。