The operation of the electricity delivery infrastructure is environmentally driven and vulnerable to a wide range of high-impact low-probability (HILP) hazards. Among different classes of HILP disasters, earthquakes are one of the most unpredictable hazards which may lead to widespread disruptions of mission-critical services and infrastructures. This article introduces a comprehensive framework for modeling and characterization of seismic hazards, vulnerability assessment of electric systems to the earthquake, and corrective actions and mitigation strategies ensuring operational resilience. The Monte Carlo simulation is employed to produce a realistically large set of possible earthquake scenarios to capture the stochastic nature of seismic hazards. An inclusive approach is then introduced based on the fundamental principles of fragility curves to assess the vulnerability of power generation facilities in the face of HILP earthquakes. A new seismic risk metric is suggested that takes into account both hazard and vulnerability probabilities, as well as the financial consequences due to postquake disruptions in power generation stations. Along with the generation redispatch strategy as a conventional mitigation solution following a nontrivial contingency, a new mitigation strategy centered on corrective network topology control is formulated to maximize the load outage recovery following HILP disruptions. The proposed decision support tool enables a swift restoration and improved resilience in dealing with the aftermath of the HILP earthquakes. Efficacy of the proposed framework is numerically analyzed and verified on both the IEEE 57-bus and IEEE 118-bus test systems.

中文翻译：

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抗震大容量电网：危害表征、建模和缓解

电力输送基础设施的运营受环境驱动，容易受到各种高影响低概率 (HILP) 危害的影响。在不同类别的 HILP 灾难中，地震是最不可预测的灾害之一，可能导致关键任务服务和基础设施的广泛中断。本文介绍了一个综合框架，用于对地震灾害进行建模和表征、电力系统对地震的脆弱性评估以及确保操作弹性的纠正措施和缓解策略。Monte Carlo 模拟用于生成大量真实的可能地震场景，以捕捉地震灾害的随机性质。然后基于脆性曲线的基本原理引入了一种包容性方法来评估发电设施在面对 HILP 地震时的脆弱性。建议采用新的地震风险度量标准，该度量标准考虑到灾害和脆弱性概率，以及由于发电站地震后中断造成的财务后果。除了作为传统应急解决方案的发电再调度策略外，还制定了以纠正网络拓扑控制为中心的新缓解策略，以最大限度地提高 HILP 中断后的负载中断恢复。提议的决策支持工具能够在处理 HILP 地震的后果时快速恢复并提高恢复能力。