Evacuation drills are critical to ensure safety and to evaluate emergency preparedness. However, drills are overly expensive in terms of the involved resources. Before conducting drills, it is possible to test the infrastructure under stress using computer simulation (combined with optimization) to identify critical points (hotspots) that could improve the flow dynamics during a real evacuation or emergency. This article proposes a mesoscopic (optimization–simulation) framework that models the evacuation dynamics from a strategic perspective considering the infrastructure of the evacuated area and the effect of congestion on the evacuation times. The mesoscopic framework iteratively interweaves two models: (i) a macroscopic network-oriented optimization model that finds flows of evacuees toward the safe zones, and (ii) a microscopic discrete-event simulation model that evaluates the effect of congestion. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework, the article presents a case study that recreates a real evacuation drill that took place in a university campus. The results of the case study support infrastructure investment decisions that enhance the evacuation dynamics.

中文翻译：

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建筑群疏散中的时间估计和热点检测：细观方法和案例研究

疏散演习对于确保安全和评估应急准备至关重要。然而，就所涉及的资源而言，钻探过于昂贵。在进行演习之前，可以使用计算机模拟（结合优化）测试压力下的基础设施，以确定在实际疏散或紧急情况下可以改善流动动态的关键点（热点）。本文提出了一个细观（优化-模拟）框架，从战略角度对疏散动态进行建模，考虑到疏散区域的基础设施和拥挤对疏散时间的影响。细观框架迭代地交织两个模型：(i) 一个宏观的面向网络的优化模型，它发现疏散人员流向安全区，(ii) 评估拥塞影响的微观离散事件仿真模型。为了说明所提议框架的适用性，本文提供了一个案例研究，该案例研究重现了发生在大学校园内的真实疏散演习。案例研究的结果支持增强疏散动态的基础设施投资决策。