Abstract

The paper presents a dynamical stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for key indicators of the Russian economy. A special feature of the approach is the Keynesian microeconomic foundation, which takes into account market failures such as imperfect competition, as well as inflexible prices and wages. The second specific feature is the hypothesis of rational expectations. The model consists of a system of 17 equations describing the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, exchange rate, exports, imports, and consumption relative to its equilibrium trajectories. The model is designed to assess the nature of the reaction of key economic indicators to fluctuations in exogenous factors. Using the constructed model, the effects on key macroeconomic indicators from demand shocks, total factor productivity, and changes in the world’s interest rates are estimated. The results of modeling and calculations can be used by monetary authorities to develop monetary policy.

中文翻译：

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开放经济下动态随机一般均衡模型的一个版本

摘要

本文为俄罗斯经济的主要指标提供了动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型。该方法的一个特色是凯恩斯主义的微观经济基础，该基础考虑了市场失灵，例如不完全竞争以及僵化的价格和工资。第二个特定特征是理性期望的假设。该模型由一个由17个方程式组成的系统组成，这些方程式描述了关键的宏观经济指标（如GDP，通胀，利率，汇率，出口，进口和相对于其均衡轨迹的消费）的动态。该模型旨在评估关键经济指标对外源因素波动的反应性质。使用构建的模型，需求冲击，全要素生产率，并估算世界利率的变化。货币当局可以使用建模和计算的结果来制定货币政策。