When a large-scale disaster occurs, each evacuee should move to an appropriate refuge in a speedy and safe manner. Most of the existing studies on the refuge assignment consider the speediness of evacuation and refuge capacity while the safety of evacuation is not taken into account. In this paper, we propose a refuge assignment scheme that considers both the speediness and safety of evacuation under the refuge capacity constraint. We first formulate the refuge assignment problem as a two-step integer linear program (ILP). Since the two-step ILP requires route candidates between evacuees and their possible refuges, we further propose a speedy and reliable route selection scheme as an extension of the existing route selection scheme. Through numerical results using the actual data of Arako district of Nagoya city in Japan, we show that the proposed scheme can improve the average route reliability among evacuees by 13.6% while suppressing the increase of the average route length among evacuees by 7.3%, compared with the distance-based route selection and refuge assignment. In addition, we also reveal that the current refuge capacity is not enough to support speedy and reliable evacuation for the residents.

中文翻译：

---

配备有避难所的庇护所，可快速可靠地撤离

当发生大规模灾难时，每个撤离人员都应迅速安全地转移到适当的避难所。现有的大多数关于避难所分配的研究都考虑了疏散的迅速性和避难能力，而疏散的安全性并未得到考虑。在本文中，我们提出了一种避难所分配方案，该方案同时考虑了避难所容量约束下疏散的速度和安全性。我们首先将避难所分配问题表述为两步整数线性程序（ILP）。由于两步式ILP要求在撤离人员及其可能的避难所之间建立候选路线，因此我们进一步提出了一种快速而可靠的路线选择方案，作为对现有路线选择方案的扩展。通过使用日本名古屋市荒子区实际数据的数值结果，我们表明，与基于距离的路线选择和避难所分配相比，该方案可将撤离人员的平均路线可靠性提高13.6％，同时将撤离人员的平均路线长度增加7.3％。此外，我们还发现，目前的避难所容量不足以支持居民的快速可靠撤离。