The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower‐troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.

中文翻译：

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CMIP6对流层中普遍存在的升温偏差

长期以来，人们一直注意到气候模型趋于夸大热带对流层变暖的趋势。在这里，我们检查了来自38个新发布的耦合模型比较项目版本6（CMIP6）模型的各个运行，并显示了全球范围内现在也可以观察到热偏差。我们将CMIP6运行与从卫星，气象气球和再分析产品得出的观测序列进行了比较。我们专注于1979-2014年的间隔，该间隔是所有观测产品可用的最大跨度，并且模型是使用历史观测到的强迫运行的。对于全球和热带地区的低层对流层和中层对流层，所有38个模型都高估了每个目标观测类似物的变暖，在大多数情况下明显如此，并且模型与观测值之间的平均差异具有统计学意义。