Abstract Changes in the climate and weather conditions, as well as rising earth’s average temperature are likely to escalate deterioration of global drought occurrence. Drought is considered an interwoven natural disaster composed by a number of different factors, as for example agricultural, meteorological or hydrological. Hydrological drought estimation with regional accuracy is the most problematic and challenging issue. In order to monitor and characterize drought conditions, using Standardized Drought Indices (SDI) is recently the most frequently used practice. In this research article, we suggest an improved hydrological drought index that incorporates upgraded monthly rainfall estimation records, which play an important role in defining regional drought conditions, with regard to the global temperature rise. Rainfall is highly changeable even at a low distance and therefore should be also considered in precipitation estimation records because temporal rainfall records play a significant role in determining long-term rainfall shortages. Thus, the integration of regional aspect to the amount of rainfall is essential for accurate regional drought assessment. This research article proposes adding auxiliary data such as regional weights in order to make monthly rainfall records more accurate in relation to the dependency characteristics of temperature and rainfall records under regression and product estimation settings. Subsequently, we propose an innovative method of hydrological drought evaluation, a so-called Regionally Improved Weighted Standardized Drought Index (RIWSDI). We evaluated hydrological drought with the usage of RIWSDI at seven various meteorological regions situated in climatologically different areas in Pakistan. We assessed and compared the results using RIWSDI, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on 3 and 12-month interval period on the basis of Pearson correlation. Under both parametric and non-parametric standardization, we discovered that there is a high positive correlation between RIWSDI and current methodology (SPI). To sum up, we proved that the upgraded estimations of rainfall are able to improve systems for monitoring droughts.

中文翻译：

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利用辅助信息下的改进降水记录进行区域干旱评估

摘要 气候和天气条件的变化以及地球平均气温的上升可能会加剧全球干旱发生的恶化。干旱被认为是由多种不同因素组成的相互交织的自然灾害，例如农业、气象或水文因素。具有区域准确性的水文干旱估计是最棘手和最具挑战性的问题。为了监测和描述干旱状况，使用标准化干旱指数 (SDI) 是最近最常用的做法。在这篇研究文章中，我们建议改进水文干旱指数，该指数包含升级后的每月降雨量估算记录，这些记录在定义与全球气温升高相关的区域干旱条件方面发挥着重要作用。即使在很短的距离内，降雨量也是高度可变的，因此在降雨量估算记录中也应予以考虑，因为临时降雨量记录在确定长期降雨短缺方面发挥着重要作用。因此，区域方面与降雨量的整合对于准确的区域干旱评估至关重要。本研究文章建议添加区域权重等辅助数据，以使月降雨量记录在回归和产品估计设置下相对于温度和降雨量记录的依赖性特征更加准确。随后，我们提出了一种创新的水文干旱评估方法，即所谓的区域改进加权标准化干旱指数（RIWSDI）。我们使用 RIWSDI 在位于巴基斯坦气候不同地区的七个不同气象区域评估了水文干旱。我们根据 Pearson 相关性，在 3 个月和 12 个月的间隔期间使用 RIWSDI、标准化降水指数 (SPI) 评估和比较结果。在参数和非参数标准化下，我们发现 RIWSDI 与当前方法 (SPI) 之间存在高度正相关。综上所述，我们证明了降雨量的升级估计能够改进监测干旱的系统。在参数和非参数标准化下，我们发现 RIWSDI 与当前方法 (SPI) 之间存在高度正相关。综上所述，我们证明了降雨量的升级估计能够改进监测干旱的系统。在参数和非参数标准化下，我们发现 RIWSDI 与当前方法 (SPI) 之间存在高度正相关。综上所述，我们证明了降雨量的升级估计能够改进监测干旱的系统。