Human reliability analysis (HRA) is of great significance for probabilistic risk assessment, and the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) has been widely applied to assess the dependence among HRA. However, uncertainties in analyst's judgment and experts' knowledge, especially interval uncertainty in analyst's judgment, have been ignored by existing methods. To this end, the belief rule‐based system is employed to model uncertainties in experts' knowledge in this paper, and the interval belief distribution is used to model interval uncertainty in analyst's judgment. Then, a new belief rule‐based dependence assessment method is proposed, and two case studies are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method could not only model uncertainty using belief rules and interval belief distributions, but also provide a novel and effective way for human reliability analysis.

中文翻译：

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区间不确定性下基于信念规则的依存性评估方法

人的可靠性分析（HRA）对于概率风险评估具有重要意义，而人为错误率预测（THERP）技术已被广泛用于评估HRA之间的依赖性。然而，现有方法忽略了分析师判断和专家知识的不确定性，尤其是分析师判断中的区间不确定性。为此，本文采用基于置信规则的系统对专家知识中的不确定性进行建模，并采用区间置信度分布对分析师的判断中的不确定性进行建模。然后，提出了一种新的基于信念规则的依存度评估方法，并通过两个案例研究来说明该方法的有效性。