The present study assesses the response of farm income to climatic variations and projects the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Trans- and Upper Gangetic Plains Region of India. Panel data estimation of crop response function has been carried out by pooling long time series (1980–2009) and cross-section data of 84 districts. Climate change impact projections have been made with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario for the time slice 2010–2039 and two sub periods, viz. 2020–2029 and 2030–2039. The negative effect of rise in temperature on gross margin per hectare ranges from 10.5% in monsoon season (June to September) to 6.5% in winter season (October to February). The marginal effect of precipitation change is positive albeit of small magnitude, 0.04% and 0.03% , in the monsoon and winter season, respectively. Loss in annual gross margin per hectare in Trans- and Upper Gangetic Plains is projected to be 14.47% for the time slice 2010–2039. The losses are likely to escalate in 2030–2039 (17.06%) over 2020–2029 (15.86%). The northern part of the region will be affected adversely during the monsoon season, with the exception of a few districts which are likely to gain marginally due to winter warming.

本研究评估了农业收入对气候变化的响应，并预测了气候变化对印度横贯和上恒河平原地区农业的影响。作物响应函数的面板数据估计是通过汇总长时间序列（1980-2009年）和84个地区的横截面数据来进行的。对气候变化影响的预测是利用2010-2039年时间段和两个子时期的代表浓度路径（RCP）4.5气候情景进行的。2020–2029和2030–2039。温度升高对每公顷毛利率的负面影响范围从季风季节（6月至9月）的10.5％到冬季（10月至2月）的6.5％。在季风和冬季，降水量变化的边际效应为正值，尽管幅度较小，分别为0.04％和0.03％，分别。跨恒河上游和恒河上游平原的每公顷年毛利润损失预计在2010-2039年期间为14.47％。在2020年至2029年（15.86％），损失可能会在2030-2039年间扩大（17.06％）。该地区的北部地区在季风季节将受到不利影响，只有少数地区可能由于冬季变暖而略有增加。