Estimating earthquake occurrence rates from the accumulation rate of seismic moment is an established tool of seismic hazard analysis. We propose an alternative, fault‐agnostic approach based on the conservation of energy: the Energy‐Conserving Seismicity Framework (ENCOS). Working in energy space has the advantage that the radiated energy is a better predictor of the damage potential of earthquake waves than the seismic moment release. In a region, ENCOS balances the stationary power available to cause earthquakes with the long‐term seismic energy release represented by the energy‐frequency distribution's first moment. Accumulation and release are connected through the average seismic efficiency, by which we mean the fraction of released energy that is converted into seismic waves. Besides measuring earthquakes in energy, ENCOS differs from moment balance essentially in that the energy accumulation rate depends on the total stress in addition to the strain rate tensor. To validate ENCOS, we exemplarily model the energy‐frequency distribution around Southern California. We estimate the energy accumulation rate due to tectonic loading assuming poroelasticity and hydrostasis. Using data from the World Stress Map and assuming the frictional limit to estimate the stress tensor, we obtain a power of 0.8 GW. The uncertainty range, 0.3–2.0 GW, originates mainly from the thickness of the seismogenic crust, the friction coefficient on preexisting faults, and models of Global Positioning System (GPS) derived strain rates. Based on a Gutenberg‐Richter magnitude‐frequency distribution, this power can be distributed over a range of energies consistent with historical earthquake rates and reasonable bounds on the seismic efficiency.

中文翻译：

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应用能量守恒从应变率和应力估算地震频率

从地震矩的累积率估算地震发生率是地震危险性分析的既定工具。我们提出了一种基于能量守恒的替代，与故障无关的方法：“能量守恒地震框架”（ENCOS）。在能量空间中工作具有的优势是，辐射能量比地震矩释放更好地预测了地震波的破坏潜力。在一个地区，ENCOS用能量频率分布的一阶矩表示的长期地震能量释放平衡了引起地震的固定功率。累积和释放通过平均地震效率联系在一起，平均效率指的是释放出的能量转化为地震波的比例。除了测量能源地震之外，ENCOS与力矩平衡的本质不同之处在于，能量积累率除应变率张量外，还取决于总应力。为了验证ENCOS，我们示例性地对南加州周围的能量频率分布进行建模。我们假设孔隙弹性和静水作用，估计由于构造载荷引起的能量积累速率。使用来自世界应力图的数据并假设摩擦极限来估算应力张量，我们获得的功率为0.8 GW。不确定性范围为0.3–2.0 GW，主要来自于地震成因壳的厚度，先前存在的断层的摩擦系数以及全球定位系统（GPS）得出的应变率模型。根据古腾堡-里希特量级频率分布，