This paper assesses the impacts of observed (1981–2010) and projected (2011–2100) climate changes on key indicators and critical thresholds for grape growth and wine production across the three appellations of origin in Ontario (Canada). The historical analysis is based on local weather station data from Environment Canada and the projections are based on selective ensembles of seasonal global climate model projections, statistically downscaled to create local-daily climate change scenarios. Average growing season temperatures have already been warming and growing degree days are increasing, both at statistically significant rates, and are both projected to continue increasing over the course of the twenty-first century. For Niagara Peninsula and Lake Erie North Shore, these one-time cool climate wine regions have already evolved into intermediate climate wine regions and are projected to transition into warm or even hot climate regions by the 2080s. There is also evidence showing that heat stress has and will likely continue to increase, while freeze damage has and likely will continue to decrease. Pruning and shading are the key short-term adaptation strategies while varietal selection is the key long-term adaptation strategy to minimize risks and maximise opportunities in response to these observed and projected regional climate change impacts.

中文翻译：

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加拿大原产地名称安大略省的气候变化对葡萄和葡萄酒的影响评估

本文评估了观测到的（1981–2010）和预计的（2011–2100）气候变化对安大略（加拿大）三个原产地的葡萄生长和葡萄酒生产的关键指标和关键阈值的影响。历史分析基于加拿大环境局的本地气象站数据，而预测则基于季节性全球气候模型预测的选择性集合，并在统计上缩小了比例，以创建当地每天的气候变化情景。平均生长季节的温度已经开始变暖，并且生长日数正以统计上显着的速度增加，并且预计在二十一世纪的过程中两者都将继续增加。对于尼亚加拉半岛和伊利湖北岸，这些曾经属于凉爽气候的葡萄酒产区已经演变为中等气候葡萄酒产区，预计到2080年代将过渡到温暖甚至炎热的气候地区。还有证据表明，热应激已经并且可能会继续增加，而冻害已经并且可能会继续减少。修剪和遮荫是关键的短期适应策略，而品种选择是关键的长期适应策略，可根据观察到的和预计的区域气候变化影响，最大限度地降低风险和最大机会。