Climate change is currently affecting both biodiversity and human activities; land use change and greenhouse gas emissions are the main drivers. Many agricultural services are affected by the change, which in turn reflects on the basic provisioning services, which supply food, fibre and biofuels. Biofuels are getting increasing interest because of their sustainability potential. Jatropha curcas gained popularity as a biodiesel crop, due to its ease of cultivation even in harsh environmental conditions. Notwithstanding its high economic importance, few studies are available about its co‐occurrence with pests of the genus Aphthona in sub‐Saharan Africa, where these insects feed on J. curcas, leading to relevant economic losses. Using ecological niche modelling and GIS post‐modelling analyses, we infer the current and future suitable territories for both these taxa, delineating areas where J. curcas cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of Aphthona, in the context of future climate and land use changing. We introduce an area‐normalized index, the ‘Potential‐Actual Cultivation Index’, to better depict the ratio between the suitable areas shared both by the crop and its pest, and the number of actual cultivations, in a target country. Moreover, we find high economic losses (~−50%) both in terms of carbon sequestration and in biodiesel production when J. curcas co‐occur with the Aphthona cookei species group.

中文翻译：

---

当环境变化影响植物与虫害的关系时评估对生物燃料生产和生态系统服务的影响

气候变化目前正在影响生物多样性和人类活动；土地利用变化和温室气体排放是主要驱动力。许多农业服务都受到该变化的影响，而变化又反过来反映了提供食物，纤维和生物燃料的基本供应服务。由于生物燃料具有可持续发展的潜力，因此越来越引起人们的关注。由于麻疯树即使在恶劣的环境条件下也易于种植，因此作为生物柴油作物而受到欢迎。尽管它具有很高的经济重要性，但很少有关于它与撒哈拉以南非洲的Aphthona害虫共存的研究，这些害虫以麻疯树为食，导致相关的经济损失。使用生态位建模和GIS后建模分析，我们推断出这两个分类单元的当前和未来合适区域，描绘了在未来气候和土地利用变化的背景下可能发生麻疯树栽培而没有遭受口疮的地区。我们引入了区域归一化的指标，即“潜在实际耕作指数”，以更好地描述目标国家中作物及其有害生物共有的合适区域与实际耕种数量之间的比率。此外，当J. curcas与Aphthona cookei同时发生时，我们发现在碳固存和生物柴油生产方面都存在很高的经济损失（〜-50％） 物种组。