Abstract History of variability of tropical cyclones (TC) in the North-Western Pacific is critical for understanding impacts of future climatic changes. Natural archives of paleo-typhoon variability can be used to assess how changes in the planetary climatic system during the Holocene could influence TC frequency and intensity in this part of Pacific. Extreme typhoon-related rains are the main cause of catastrophic floods on Sakhalin Island and deposits of these floods are evidence of paleo-typhoon. The paleo-typhoons that triggered extreme floods on Southern Sakhalin during the last 6.6 kyr are recorded in the sequence on the interfluvial surface in the northern Susunay Lowland (Naiba River basin). The sequence includes peat bog with numerous loam interlayers deposited during extreme floods inundating the bog. We reconstructed paleo-environmental conditions, including humidity and flood activity, based on analysis of diatoms. We found biological indicators that point to the past floods. The mineral content in the peat being one criteria indicative of the high frequency of floods. The peat bog developed in place of a lagoon that existed at the maximum phase of the Holocene transgression. Peat accumulation began in the freshened lagoon coast ~6010 cal yr B.P. When sea level dropped, the lagoon turned into a coastal lake (~5710–5040 cal yr B.P.). A swamp formed in place of the lake under varying moisture conditions. We identified and dated 25 extreme floods and assessed the paleoclimatic background of the events. A recent catastrophic flood from typhoon Phyllis (1981 CE) is considered as an analogue of the paleo-events. The frequency of extreme typhoons increased both during warm (wet and dry) phases and in cold dry phases of the climate fluctuations. We identified three periods of a high typhoon activity (4640–4360; 4030–3580; 1860–1380 cal yr B.P.), when super-typhoons came onto the island once every 30–90 years. A comparison between the extreme typhoons in the south of Sakhalin and in the Sea of Japan region show both synchronism and metachronism of the periods of typhoon activity. Instrumental measurements during 20th–21st centuries revealed considerable changes in super-typhoon tracks; a similar variability may be safely supposed in typhoon tracks in the past. To predict future tropical cyclone activity and the risk of floods under modern climatic instability it is necessary to understand factors influencing variability in the occurrence of strong typhoons and associated extreme floods events on a paleo-scale. This is especially important for areas with rapidly developing coastal economies and intensive use of gas and oil resources, such as Sakhalin Island.

中文翻译：

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库页岛南部极端洪水的复发作为自 6.6 ka 以来西北太平洋古台风变率的证据

摘要 西北太平洋热带气旋 (TC) 的变率历史对于了解未来气候变化的影响至关重要。古台风变率的自然档案可用于评估全新世期间行星气候系统的变化如何影响太平洋这一部分的 TC 频率和强度。与台风有关的极端降雨是库页岛发生灾难性洪水的主要原因，这些洪水的沉积物是古台风的证据。过去 6.6 kyr 期间在南萨哈林引发极端洪水的古台风记录在苏苏奈低地北部（奈巴河流域）的河流间表面的序列中。该序列包括泥炭沼，在淹没沼泽的极端洪水期间沉积了许多壤土夹层。我们根据对硅藻的分析重建了古环境条件，包括湿度和洪水活动。我们发现了指向过去洪水的生物指标。泥炭中的矿物质含量是指示洪水频率高的标准之一。泥炭沼泽代替了存在于全新世海侵最大阶段的泻湖。泥炭在清新的泻湖海岸开始积累~6010 cal yr BP 当海平面下降时，泻湖变成一个沿海湖泊（~5710-5040 cal yr BP）。在不同的湿度条件下，代替湖泊形成了沼泽。我们确定并确定了 25 次极端洪水的年代，并评估了这些事件的古气候背景。最近由台风菲利斯 (1981 CE) 引发的灾难性洪水被认为是古事件的类似物。在气候波动的暖（湿和干）阶段和冷干阶段，极端台风的频率增加。我们确定了三个台风活动频繁的时期（4640-4360；4030-3580；1860-1380 cal yr BP），当时超级台风每 30-90 年登陆一次。对比库页岛南部和日本海地区的极端台风，台风活动周期具有同步性和异时性。20 至 21 世纪的仪器测量显示超级台风路径发生了相当大的变化；在过去的台风路径中可以安全地假设类似的变化。为了预测未来热带气旋活动和现代气候不稳定下的洪水风险，有必要了解影响古尺度上强台风和相关极端洪水事件发生变化的因素。这对于库页岛等沿海经济发展迅速、油气资源利用密集的地区尤为重要。