We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.

中文翻译：

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评估根据未来 SST 和温室气体浓度情景预测极端风暴潮高度未来变化的不确定性

我们使用单一大气全球气候模型，根据从具有四种海面温度 (SST) 条件和三种全球变暖情景的集合实验结果中提取的台风数据，评估预测极端风暴潮高度 (SSH) 未来变化的不确定性。特别是，本研究重点关注经过朝鲜半岛 (KP) 定义为北纬 32 至 40 度和东经 122 至 132 度区域的台风。预计影响 KP 的台风数量将减少 4 至 73 %，而在未来给定的条件下，它们的强度将增加 0.8~1.4%。在所有集合实验条件下，预计台风的发生和裂解位置将分别向西北和东北移动。然而，它们的变化程度取决于未来的海温和全球变暖条件。风暴潮模拟是通过使用预测的台风数据作为外力进行的。研究发现，未来海温模式和气候变暖情景会影响未来台风特征，进而影响未来气候条件下极端SSH值和易受风暴潮影响地区的位置。特别是，极端 SSH 值和风暴潮易受攻击区域的位置似乎受到强台风路径和频率的强烈影响。影响未来气候条件下极端 SSH 值和易受风暴潮影响区域的位置。特别是，极端 SSH 值和风暴潮易受攻击区域的位置似乎受到强台风路径和频率的强烈影响。影响未来气候条件下极端 SSH 值和易受风暴潮影响区域的位置。特别是，极端 SSH 值和风暴潮易受攻击区域的位置似乎受到强台风路径和频率的强烈影响。