Arctic coastal erosion due to decreasing ice protection and increasing temperatures is a threat to coastal communities and infrastructure as well as a driver of long-term habitat changes. In order to respond to this threat, decadal predictive models are required that incorporate the effects of climate change under current emission trajectories. This work presents an Arctic erosion one-line model capable of estimating unknown coastal parameters through historic coastline measurements. Parameter estimation is carried out using both the extended and unscented Kalman filters, and the results compared. The model and parameter estimation are evaluated using two sections of Arctic coastline, one near Oliktok Point, AK, and the other along the coast of Barter Island, AK. Historic wave fields are modeled for both locations using downsampled historic GCM data for boundary conditions and estimating fetch distance. Future wave and temperature conditions are found using GCM projections under the RCP 8.5 pathway. Parameter estimation is performed on all coastal measurements except the most recent coastline available; this hold out measurement is then used to test the predictive power of the model. Coastlines at both locations are simulated from 1980 to 2070. It is found that root-mean-square error values for both locations are lower than purely empirical techniques and future predictions show increasing rates of erosion under the RCP 8.5 pathway.

中文翻译：

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气候变化影响下北极海岸侵蚀的贝叶斯参数估计

由于冰层保护减少和温度升高导致北极海岸侵蚀对沿海社区和基础设施构成威胁，也是长期栖息地变化的驱动因素。为了应对这种威胁，需要十年预测模型，将气候变化的影响纳入当前排放轨迹。这项工作提出了一种北极侵蚀单线模型，能够通过历史海岸线测量来估计未知的海岸参数。使用扩展卡尔曼滤波器和无迹卡尔曼滤波器进行参数估计，并比较结果。模型和参数估计使用北极海岸线的两个部分进行评估，一个靠近 AK Oliktok Point，另一个位于 AK 的 Barter 岛海岸。使用下采样的历史 GCM 数据作为边界条件并估计获取距离，对两个位置的历史波场进行建模。使用 RCP 8.5 路径下的 GCM 预测可以找到未来的波浪和温度条件。除了最近可用的海岸线外，对所有海岸测量进行参数估计；然后使用此保持测量来测试模型的预测能力。两个地点的海岸线都是从 1980 年到 2070 年模拟的。发现两个地点的均方根误差值低于纯经验技术，未来预测显示 RCP 8.5 路径下侵蚀率增加。除了最近可用的海岸线外，对所有海岸测量进行参数估计；然后使用此保持测量来测试模型的预测能力。两个地点的海岸线都是从 1980 年到 2070 年模拟的。发现两个地点的均方根误差值低于纯经验技术，未来预测显示 RCP 8.5 路径下侵蚀率增加。除了最近可用的海岸线外，对所有海岸测量进行参数估计；然后使用此保持测量来测试模型的预测能力。两个地点的海岸线都是从 1980 年到 2070 年模拟的。发现两个地点的均方根误差值低于纯经验技术，未来预测显示 RCP 8.5 路径下侵蚀率增加。